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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KHS who wrote (18637)	9/13/2001 10:54:03 AM
From: Jerry Olson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

A bear huh???..me??? lol... well if da show fits right?.. actually i was looking for this fall time period to invest serious money in the markets..i've been writting about it for 6 months or more...up to this time frame i have steadfastly told my friends do not invest 1 buck till later this year, i said stocks would be on sale, cheaper big time...and so they are.. i do not think patriotism will do anything for the consumer..in fact i'm now thinking it's going to a lot worse in the short term... not only have people gotten killed in their portfolio's for over 1 1/2 years now...but now out of the blue, there mental attitude has been shocked... this single horrific event, has shaken all of us... i truly think we could see negative growth and that dreaded R word becomes a reality... is there room for a bull here??? sure there is..i'm one of those...just not ready to dive into the abyss right here...

To: KHS who wrote (18637)	9/13/2001 11:02:41 AM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 52237

Stocks Gain in Europe, Treasuries Surge Thursday September 13, 10:56 am Eastern Time By James Saft LONDON (Reuters) - European stocks were little changed on Thursday and U.S. Treasury bonds, trading for the first time since the terror attacks on the United States, surged. Yields on two-year notes, in demand because they are less risky than longer-dates, hit historic lows, brokers said. Stocks in Europe lost earlier gains, leaving the pan-European FTSE Eurotop 300 index over six percent below where it was before two hijacked planes destroyed New York's World Trade Center. The dollar was little changed at $0.9068 to the euro and 1.6578 Swiss francs in sparse trade, unable to extend Wednesday's recovery as concerns remained about a possible global recession after the attacks. In their first chance to trade since Tuesday's horror, U.S. investors fled to short-dated debt futures and out of riskier longer-dated instruments as trading opened. ``We've got a 50-basis-point cut priced in the October fed funds futures contract,'' said Michael Wallace, senior market strategist at Standard and Poor's. ``The September contract is showing a 60 percent to 70 percent chance of a 25-basis-point ease so in other words an intermeeting easing of potentially 25 to 50 basis points.'' The Federal Reserve Bank is due to meet next on October 2, but is free to adjust interest rates between formal meetings. Earlier, the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged but said again that it stood ready to provide liquidity to banks and markets as needed. Economists have raised grave concerns that the physical and psychological costs of the attack, especially on consumer sentiment, might tip the world's largest economy into recession. Central banks around the world have injected more than $120 billion into markets to ease a possible banking cash crunch and help restore calm. Insurance companies rebounded in share trading in Europe, as better information about the potential liability from Tuesday's attacks made traders re-think earlier doomsday assumptions. The sector rose 2.61 percent. Equities trading in New York will resume as early as Friday and no later than Monday, New York Stock Exchange chairman Richard Grasso said on Wednesday. TREASURIES SURGE, GOLD FALLS According to traders and BrokerTec Global LLC, a Jersey City, New Jersey-based electronic interdealer broker, two-year notes were up 1-1/32 to 101-1/32, pushing their yield sharply lower to a new historic low of 3.08 percent. Five-year notes were up about a full point at 102-16/32, yielding 4.03 percent. Ten-year notes were up more than a point to 1-7/32 to 102-12/32, its yield at 4.70 percent. Many investors and dealers will have difficulty seeing U.S. Treasury prices on screens usually provided by inter-dealer brokers. Many of these firms were based in the now destroyed World Trade Center. Yields on euro zone government bonds rose. The European market lagged as further significant monetary easing had already been priced in during the last two days. ``We have no real idea where the market is going. Volumes are thin and unreliable in the U.S. trade,'' said a European bonds trader in Berlin. ``We need even more than the re-opening of U.S. equity markets in the next few days to form any opinion. If we get news of a military action that will also cause us to change sentiment again.'' At 1430 GMT, the yield on the two-year Schatz was up 1.7 basis points at 3.738 percent. The 10-year Bund yield was up 0.18 basis points at 4.841 percent. The December Bund future was down 0.10 at 108.40, off highs around 108.74. IPE Brent crude futures jumped after Iraq reported that U.S. and British warplanes struck targets in southern Iraq but at 1432 GMT was down seven cents on the day at $27.95 a barrel. Britain and the United States denied reports by the official Iraqi news agency said that their aircraft fired missiles on targets in Wasit province destroying homes. Gold bullion, the traditional safe haven in times of crisis, fixed in London at $278.50 a troy ounce, half a cent down from the previous day's close. Both oil and gold have given up part of gains they made as part of a flight to physical assets in the wake of the attack. MARKETS AWAIT US EQUITIES Wall Street stock markets were facing their longest shutdown in more than 80 years. The idle time was allowing investors and traders, many of whom had lost co-workers after hijacked planes toppled the Trade Center, to adjust to the shock of what appeared to be the worst such attack on U.S. soil. Investment gurus had initially predicted a gut-wrenching tumble in stocks once they open, but they are tempering forecasts of gloom as European markets manage to hold steady after Tuesday's attacks on the twin towers and the Pentagon outside of Washington. In Toronto, where equities trading did resume, the TSE 300 index recovered early losses to stand 0.17 percent higher by 1434 GMT. ``A lot of the uncertainty about this is starting to dissipate -- there is a light at the end of the tunnel for us,'' said Arthur Hogan, chief market analyst at brokerage Jefferies & Co. Hogan said. ``The fact that it is taking longer than people thought to reopen is better. We will get less of a panic. It will give us time to see how this financially affects us. I think it will be lot less emotional and more rational.'' -- Additional reporting by Sabrina Ghani, Natsuko Waki and Huw Jones in London and Ellen Freilich and Denise Duclaux in New York

To: KHS who wrote (18637)	9/13/2001 11:34:57 AM
From: velociraptor_	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Increased patriotism will not change the fact that the average American Consumer is overladen with debt, nor will it change the fact that 1.3+ million people have been laid off from their jobs. Given the instability that we are now facing, I see the opposite in that consumers will now hold back even more. Talking with family members and friends in the last few days, many are worried even more now when it comes to financial status and will be saving more than they spend. Patriotism is great, but it has no link to the economy.

To: KHS who wrote (18637)	9/13/2001 2:46:02 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 52237

KHS, >>>> could increase in patriotism bolster consumer confidence? Could the horrific disaster boost worldwide internet communications and commerce? These variables could change the fundamental market forces that have been in place!!! <<<< I don't want to give the impression of being bullish, but I'm right now really not that bearish, and I do think that patriotism may help. I dont have the exact facts, so feel free to correct me. During the depression, JP MORGAN was able to organize a group where he, at the lead, was buying as the the market was crashing. Not that he was able to create a rally, but what I believe he did was put in a bottom. If it wasn't for his efforts, it is my understanding that it could have been alot worse. I have heard from the news that the FEDs has been adding to the money supply dramatically. Frankly, I believe it is mainly up to the big players/mutual funds. If there is not alot of small individual liquidation of mutual funds, the mutual funds may not have to sell that much. Of course, a mutual fund may want to hedge, in light of the current situation, but that can be done without selling stock. Hedging for a mutual fund could take the form of using futures, which should have a less direct effect on the stock market than selling stock out-right. However, if the individual investors, in mass, demand liquidation, then the mutual funds will have no choice. Please don't get me wrong. Im not saying that there will be a rally, just saying that with patriotism there is fair chance that the extent of the selloff may be limited and that the bottom could be higher than some or many expect. In terms of real numbers to illustrate. Lets say, hypothetically, that the initial selloff in the NDX bottoms around 1200-1100, without patriotic efforts it may have broken well below 1000. Or if it did break 1000 to around 900, without patriotic efforts it may get to 700. Again, was only using these numbers for the purpose of illustration, and not as a prediction. Another way to say it - wherever the bottom lands, without patriotic forces it could be much worse. Also, we have to add the overseas efforts to help stabilize the markets. Maybe Im too idealistic now, but Im not that bearish that the markets crashes dramatically(Kahuna/1987 type), although I do suspect a selloff initially. I would like to also add that the I feel that the DOW is now more susceptiable than the NAZ, in light of the airlines and insurance. Concerning the airlines, its not just the passenger carriers but also the cargo carriers.