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To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (655)	9/13/2001 6:36:57 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 29596

Yes, it dropped and stabilized after the August 2 invasion of Kuwait. But the market didn't trough (at a 20% loss) till October one quarter before the end of the recession. Ultimately, business counts and a recession was already in the cards. Just don't know if the recession will be Q3Y01-Q2Y02 or Q3Y01-Q4Y01.