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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: tradermike_1999 who wrote (9031)9/13/2001 8:14:11 PM
From: Ilaine  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 74559
 
Bush asked Congress for $20 billion in emergency spending just for this fiscal year, which ends on September 30 - two weeks from now. He wants more for next fiscal year. And it's there - the so-called "Social Security trust fund" that Gore wanted to put in a "lock box", which doesn't exist because Social Security has always been pay-as-you-go. They've been jawboning ad nauseum about what to do with the money. Well, lucky for us, it's there, because we need it.

Whatever it costs to clean up the World Trade Center, it appears very possible that the EPA will pay it due to the asbestosis.

The money's going to go somewhere. To soldiers, sailors, the air force and the marines. To cops, firefighters, doctors, nurses, and hospitals. To taxi cab drivers and funeral homes. To grocers, to truck drivers, to farmers, to retailers. To gas stations. To refiners. To textile mills. To steel companies, to shipbuilders, to Boeing, to Raytheon, to General Dynamics, to Lockheed Martin, to Motorola. To Corning and JDSU. To Iridium, Globalstar and Qualcomm. To construction workers, to engineers, to architects. To Superfund contractors.

The bombing is an obscene tragedy, but the phoenix will arise from the ashes.

Whatever our understanding is of business cycles - and I think it's very faulty, myself - this is no longer on the charts. Any chart you ever had, tear it up and throw it away. We're in uncharted waters, using our eyes and our ears and our common sense and whatever else we've got to help us see the future before it hits us between the eyes.

Forget deflation. Worry about inflation. Every war there ever was, every government in recorded history spent more money than it had, and goosed not only GNP but also prices.

Was there ever a war economy superimposed on a depression? Yes, Germany under Hitler. Outsiders marvelled. They called it a miracle. No, I don't admire Hitler - just reporting it as I see it.



To: tradermike_1999 who wrote (9031)9/13/2001 9:16:08 PM
From: quasi-geezer  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
I will let the market settle down in the next 2 weeks ...
My personal trading will resume in October ...
until then 98% CASH, 2% stocks (long term holds from those dotcoms that used to trade in low 3 digits and are now low single digits, no point to sell at this time)