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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JMD who wrote (9032)	9/13/2001 8:52:42 PM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Mike, the way I read it, the recovery started in Spring, 1933, continued along pretty well until 1937, and stalled again. But it had gone down so far that the turnaround did not feel like "Happy Days Are Here Again" immediately. I think it's also pretty clear that the Great Depression was over before WWII, but WWII did greatly boost GNP, of course. By "recovery" I don't mean "return to 1929 level", I mean, "improve." The patient is still in the hospital, but out of intensive care, and is up and walking around and eating grapes. I think it's unrealistic to use 1929 as the baseline when talking about recovery, because I think 1929 was probably above the mean trend line. Here is U.S. Gross National Product in Current Prices 1919-1955 (in millions): 1919 75027.0 1920 86815.0 1921 71081.0 1922 71825.0 1923 83711.0 1924 84954.0 1925 88530.0 1926 95021.0 1927 93409.0 1928 95537.0 1929 101465. 1930 87481.0 1931 71489.0 1932 53373.0 1933 50993.0 1934 59465.0 1935 67316.0 1936 77941.0 1937 85845.0 1938 79889.0 1939 85086.0 1940 93636.0 1941 112516. 1942 122974. 1943 132764. 1944 141855. 1945 149631. 1946 187969. 1947 214483. 1948 234115. 1949 229302. 1950 259803. 1951 288993. 1952 296367. nber.org