To: lorne who wrote (76444 ) 9/14/2001 11:35:12 AM From: long-gone Respond to of 116753 Thursday September 13 12:49 PM ET Political Risk Leading the Way for Gold By Adrian Dascalu LONDON (Reuters) - Military retaliation by Washington after Tuesday's terror attacks in the United States might set off a buying frenzy in gold, but any price rise would be short lived, traders and analysts said on Thursday. ``In case of a military conflict involving the United States, we might see investors rushing to what they see as a safe haven -- and gold is one,'' an analyst said. A trader said: ``Political risk has been heightened and if the events of the Gulf War (news - web sites) might be repeated than we will see higher gold prices.'' Gold closed in London on Thursday at $280.00/282.00 an ounce, poised between peaks near $290 achieved late on Tuesday and levels of some $271 immediately before the devastation in New York and Washington. WARY OF GOING SHORT Incidental reports have already emerged of heavy gold buying by small investors in parts of Asia. ``In difficult times, people also turn to the U.S. dollar because it has high liquidity...but with the dollar most likely to be soon in the center of a conflict, people might think of gold as an alternative,'' a London analyst said. A trader added: ``I'm sure that we would not have an advance warning of the military actions...the risks at any time of something happening is going to keep people wary and will persuade most of them not to be short of gold.'' Like other commentators, he was loathe to predict how far prices might go. OIL RISKS Another analyst said a strong gold rally was in prospect if the United States and its allies were dragged into a conflict that affected the oil market. ``Such a rally is possible if people think that conflict will have a major structural impact on the global economic system...and whether it is likely to have an inflationary effect,'' the analyst said. But any major rally would be brief, traders said. ``Chances are that any rally would probably return quite fast to the present range of $275-$290,'' a trade said. Rhona O'Connell, market analysis manager at the World Gold Council, did not expect a rush for gold, particularly among professional investors. ``The belief that gold always soars in times of crisis is a misconception as its role as a hedge against risk means it tends to be bought in anticipation of a problem and then sold, if necessary, if and when a crisis materializes,'' she said. us.news2.yimg.com