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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (9139)	9/14/2001 12:11:11 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hard to say, Jay...lot's of volatility and gnashing of teeth on all sides, I suspect. I'm certainly not going to try and trade it. As a very wild guess, I'd say we gap down in the 3-5% range based on redemptions, then a bounce. But that scenario is heavily favored, meaning it probably won't occur. I think a lot will depend on what sort of military/anti-terrorist intervention is proposed, but we may not get that over the weekend. Mobilization of the reserves is ominous in that regard. I'm also concerned that follow-on attacks might occur, and how the market would react to that. Finally, I think the derivative wild card is now in play based on the horrendous performance of third world markets this week. An unintended consequence of propping up the US markets could be to widen risk spreads and blow out some very major derivative players a la LTCM. So much that is unknown. We DO live in interesting times. Regards Patron

To: TobagoJack who wrote (9139)	9/14/2001 12:45:35 PM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

In case the US go isolationism's way: Thread lets consider this scenario. US drop some Rambo-like toughies in ten camps of the usual culprits the Middle East and obliterate them. Population in the US turns introvert as security measures slows flow of people, goods, finacial instruments and (much important) information. The world slowly wakes up to the realization that they are much more on their own than they never have been before the British power era that made possible the arise of an worldwide power nation. A new economic era dawns. What would happen in the aftermath of this scenario? The usual culprits swear revenge. General boycott os US goods. Cry for Yankee go home. Americans only can travel safely on cuddly Canadian passports for safety. Countries deny they have anything to do with the obliteration of the camps by the Rambos. The economy post-US isolacionism: Hackers attack sites of the US and wreack havoc in the US data causing the US turns isolationist even more. China starts a revival of the "South-South Dialogue". The Chinese sytarts saying that the military power didn't go away after the Cold War. It is now necessary to start a new World Order. The countries have to join in peacefull community and do away once and for all with the remains of the Cold War. Enough of world policemen. The Europeans -much dependent on exports- join in as do the Latin Americans and Africans. True to fashion they declare -in concert- a moratorium in their debts. Airbuses start seeling like hot cakes and Boeing seek protection in Chapter 11. The French get -finally- their way and close down all MacDonalds. Saying its too costly to guard them against bombs and arson. In a bid to end US dominance, countries of the world, declare patents of the US no longer will be enforced. Piracy of software no longer become crime. Fidel Castro asks: "Why all this hoopla, I am doing that for over 40 years" Saudi Arabia force the US out of the country once the house of Saud faces strong pressure to clam down internal revolt following the killing of Bin Laden. Some rumorus say the real cause of the revolt is the cost the Gulf states had bear for Desert Storm 54 Billion US. The Conference of Arab Unity -with a Norwegian as Chairman- is formed to keep peace in the Middle East. So that supplies of crude is not disturbed and no longer protected by war ships. An Exocet -60's vintage- 200.000 dollar, cripples a 3 billion US aircraft carrier. The Russians - a northern country- join the South-South dailogue. Saddam Hussein go Makkah Al Muharammah for pilgrimage. This thing can get pretty far if not cut at the root.