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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David Howe who wrote (9198)	9/14/2001 3:56:27 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

War is good for the economy? ROTFL! Vietnam damn near bankrupted the U.S., it sewed the seeds for the inflation and dislocations that plagued us in the 70's. It's guns OR butter, dude...not both. As for the market, it remains horrendously overvalued, only more so because of Tuesday's events. Applying the props here will give us less to work with when we finally hit bottom, just like it's done in Japan the last 10 years. Ever heard of the "Peace Dividend"? That's been squandered, and now the economy's going to pay the "War Tax". Necessary perhaps...but NOT a boon to the economy. One more thought...this is a war in which operations and battles are conducted on American soil, in marked contradistinction to any historical precedent since the Civil War. That alone means any comparison to WWI or WWII is laughable at best. As for me, I will plant a tree for the dead...and buy a T-Bill for peace.

To: David Howe who wrote (9198)	9/14/2001 8:54:05 PM
From: Ilaine	Respond to of 74559

There are far smarter people on the board than me, David. I understand the economic principles, it's the calculations I can't get. They use calculus, my math education stopped at algebra and geometry. Everything the Fed does has a harmful effect on some part of the economy because people are all taking opposite sides of transactions. Helping people on one side hurts others. Bears have never forgiven the New York Fed for convincing the PPT to bail out LTCM - they blame that on Greenspan personally. The timing was a little nasty - right before options expiry. Minutes, I think. A lot of people I know got royally screwed just when they could taste a juicy victory. Lucky for me, I had just gone long, so I feel differently about it. Better to be lucky than smart.