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To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (122002)	9/14/2001 4:53:26 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 436258

<<< Trying to piece together a trading plan when the markets have been closed for days is difficult, but this is a likely scenario: our markets open down 5% or so, as other major markets around the world did on their first day of trading after the attack. That would be about 500 Dow points, or 55 S&P points from Monday's closing levels. Then the market should stabilize, perhaps generating that oversold rally as mentioned above. There is always the chance that the Fed will step in to try to keep a severe decline from happening. They usually don't interfere directly in the markets on the first day of a severe decline, however. For example, in the Crash of 1987, they waited until Tuesday, October 20th the day after the crash itself to step in and buy futures. At the time, the market was down substantially and looked like it might be crashing again. The Fed put an end to such thoughts. In many other cases where the market has experienced a severe negative reaction to news, it has usually rallied on the second day. The bottom line is this: we were already oversold before this nefarious, cowardly terrorist act took place. If there is a severe downside reaction when the market finally re-opens, that will probably be enough to put us in such an oversold state that a short, sharp rally will follow by the second trading day at the latest. However, the longer-term picture is not so bullish. The intermediate-term indicators will need time to form buy signals and a re-test of any trading bottom is almost certain to take place in the weeks and months ahead.>>> optionstrategist.com