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To: Sr K who wrote (167013)9/15/2001 1:06:47 PM
From: John Koligman  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176388
 
Again in the same vein, there were some comments on 'just in time' production in 'The Trader' column of Barron's...

Regards,
John

The economic effects of the World Trade Center attack began to take shape last week as several big insurance companies released sizable loss estimates. Then on Friday, Ford Motor said its third-quarter operating profits would fall short of its previous guidance of 10 cents a share owing to parts shortages stemming from freight transportation problems, particularly air freight and cross-border deliveries. The parts shortages will cut Ford's vehicle output in the current quarter by more than 10%. Air cargo traffic was severely disrupted by the midweek commercial aviation shutdown and the ensuing havoc when flights resumed, while trucking traffic slowed to a crawl at the Canadian and Mexican borders. The dislocations stemming from the terrorist attacks could be affecting many more companies, which may announce earnings shortfalls in the coming days and weeks.


Dennis Gartman, publisher of the Gartman Letter, noted last week before the Ford news that disruption of freight transportation could accelerate the shift away from just-in-time inventory management, which has been popular in recent years with companies seeking to improve financial performance. Gartman says that increasingly risk-averse businesses will look to build inventories to avoid the kind of shortages experienced by Ford. The implication, he told clients, is bullish for a host of commodities.

General Electric's multi-year string of meeting or beating analysts' profit estimates is coming to an end. The company said late Friday that its third-quarter profits would fall about four cents shy of the current consensus of 37 cents a share because of losses stemming from the World Trade Center disaster at its reinsurance division, Employers Reinsurance. GE said that its preliminary estimate is that Employers Re will suffer about $600 million in pre-tax losses.

The setback in the unit, a part of GE Capital, may not have much impact on GE's stock Monday because it was an extraordinary event, but it does suggest that there's more risk in GE Capital than GE's fans assert