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To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (104822)	9/15/2001 1:55:01 PM
From: arun gera	Respond to of 152472

Mucho: Good points. Although I might have been looking more from the tech stocks angle, which I have been following the most. One point though, cell phone penetration (voice alone) in US still has a long way to go. 80 percent penetration is not out of the question, maybe in 5-10 years. And the reasons for new subscribers will vary. But going by my experience, the number of people who are very dependent on cell phones in my friends and family is still going up. The only thing to prevent the growth is affordability. However, the price of per minute call is coming down real fast, so that may not be an issue too long. Arun

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (104822)	9/15/2001 2:16:25 PM
From: arun gera	Respond to of 152472

Mucho: I am not an economist, but productivity is a difficult thing to understand. I am sure that the security software, hardware, and services that are generated are counted towards the GDP and "the Pie gets Bigger". But remember that we were facing a sure recession a few weeks ago, and a possible lack of demand from corporations. A temporary demand may halt or reverse the downward spiral. As for cost issues for corporations, except for healthcare costs, all other costs including wages are under control. And borrowing costs for regular corporations (not start-ups and unproven business models) are down too. That is the optimistic viewpoint. I am sure Marginmike, Limtex, and you can provide the negative viewpoint for balance. Arun >>the other examples you give (e.g., more secure voice, computer, etc.) are again an incremental cost for users whose main purpose--security--is not productive>>