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To: craig crawford who wrote (131284)	9/15/2001 9:11:22 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Respond to of 164684

the economy was/is going to slide regardless of these recent events. the pundits will just use this event as an excuse for what was inevitable. Craig, This may very well be. This slide has been gaining momentum prior to these attacks. I was referring to the pundits stating this event would cause a recession or cause one sooner. tell me why you think this tragedy will get the economy roaring back to life. I never stated I thought it would. I was questioning the pundits that are talking about terrible economic time as to why these events will make it that much worse. All I was saying was the economy was weak going into this situation. I see not reason to expect this "attack" to increase the speed in the slowdown of the economy. I am not bullish on the economy. I am just questioning the pundit's cause and effect.

To: craig crawford who wrote (131284)	9/15/2001 10:04:10 PM
From: Oeconomicus	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 164684

Craig, one estimate quoted yesterday on ABC News had the incremental computer and communications spending resulting from these events at $8.1 billion. As for longer lived assets, something like 13 or 14 million square feet of NY office space was either completely destroyed or seriously damaged. Many billions of dollars. Then there's subways, roads and other lower Manhattan infrastructure. Then you have the multiplier effect of all this spending. The people employed and the companies producing goods and services as a result of this will turn around and spend the proceeds. Then, if the military is mobilized for an extended period, goods and services will be consumed by them and the available labor pool will shrink until they return. Yes, the shock and any lingering fear will dampen consumer spending for a little while. But the fact is that wars are an economic stimulus. Econ 101, Craig. And if you don't believe the "dismal scientists", study up on an ancient practice of some tribal cultures called "potlatch" (it's not war, but a replacement for it). Or, read Report from Iron Mountain (I'm sure Amazon could find a used copy for you). Or, just think about the Cold War or one episode of it - the Space Race. Is that a reason for the market to go up on Monday? No, but history shows that it may lose little or nothing and that whatever it loses will be quickly recovered. Bob