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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (40461)	9/16/2001 11:05:42 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 50167

Read OJ read, I will fill you with lot of facts, you all need it and tell this to everyone, I want Americans to feel good and feel strong. Oil will not be not an issue in this conflict.. Please revisit this article written quite sometime back on my thread.... This was my lone pre-occupation with Osama and his cohorts that led me nearly a year ago to write this piece, it was I think in response to problem of Oil going through the roof. I refuted that The dwindling power of OPEC and the fissures of political division! Abdullah has leanings towards the left of the ideological divide as far east-west relationship is concerned. That makes him bit iffy. Now on the threat to the Islamic custodianship as the Saudi King is considered as the 'Khadim-ul- Harmeen al Sharafeen' the servant and the custodian of the Holy shrines, here Abdullah is in a quandary, Arafat Saddam can any day sell him short vis a vis the radical elements of Saudis 'the bin Laden' faction, now that is one threat to the Al-Sauds. The other one stems from the Dharan eastern province the threat of the Shia Islam rearing its head and destabilizing the grip of AL Sauds with the help of Iranian brethren across the Gulf. The recent security pact is an exercise to contain that threat so as to contain inner dissent, even Iranians are in a quandary as they think Sauds as a better option over the radical Wahabis Laden faction represent. For Abdullah, he has to govern with consensus, he has balls as big as those dinosaurs, Now that gives you the indication of the man he is, a go getter, a no non-sense man, a friend of friend, he was in love with a girl from Lahore and I know ABOUT him little too good, he is not amongst the Sudeires 7, the Fahd clan is from one mother, he has a different mother but he has to rule Saudi with Sudeires who are well in control of all the provinces, he has national guards on his side need each other, the Sudeires are pro-US big time Bander Sultan and others, but the Sudieris and Abdullah know that neither Khamenei nor Laden or Arafat like the Al- Sauds. The only political anchor they have in time of crisis is Anglo Saxon alliance led by Us and UK.. the anti-American rhetoric comes when these dictators have nothing to lose, in this complex structure Abdullah needs US more than US needs Abdullah. First to save him from likes of Laden, second to protect his eastern flank and third to see that consensus prevails within the family otherwise spoils will be for the victors, Al- Sauds can have problems within if Abdullah gets out of line. The new radical Islamists are a new kind of threat to Saudis and they are as family of Saud very pragmatic to keep their grip great.. So oil has to flow so as to keep the public opinion in West on their side, if US supports erodes, Iran and Laden although ideologically divergent can join hand to establish a new kind of theocracy, where a new radical Shia- Sunni and talebani mix of ideology create an arc of crisis that may include a fragmented Pakistan too with nuclear weapons they have.. The deduction is that Abdullah knows the risk too well and knows that left wing popularism is good for the Arab streets, that he plays well but the real politics is what I have highlighted above rest is lip service. For his power he needs the support of the west and for that no long gas lines is a must, for popularity of the streets he may give some money away but he will not join hands with likes of Arafat and Saddam who will in turn create an unholy alliance to destabilize the entire region by involving the most of the radicals of the region. The threat to the thrown is the first priority ideological directions are second. so no war and no fooling around with the precarious balance by house of Al Sauds.. Now Chavez, he is non-entity does some bidding for Saddam and Iran, he is being used nothing more nothing less, but Saudis are the swing producers and they will not allow fooling around so that their markets share is threatened.. oil prices is a product of internal dynamics of Saudi politics and thanks for the question I wished I should have taken sometime and researched to answer but hopefully it will help you Patrick. but we can continue the discussion..