A couple (long-winded) optimistic thoughts (about the crisis):
Over the weekend, I had chance to speak w/dozen or so friends. Almost everyone, of course, is talking about the events last Tuesday. And almost everyone concedes that it will be years before things get any better, if at all. I have never seen such a level of negativity in my life, far surpassing the Gulf War. Some of my friends believe nuclear war, in some form or fashion, may indeed happen. Many believe that our lives will never be the same again.
I have been left playing the "point/counterpoint" role of optimist this weekend. But not entirely unfounded, I think:
(1) I have been impressed, surprised, you-name-it at how quickly our intelligence/law enforcement has gathered clues/witnesses/direct evidence implicating Bin Laden. At first, it seemed to be a hoax or ruse by the perpetrators (for the info to be acquired so easily), but now it appears that they simply didn't care about the trial/they were going to die anyway/they got sloppy...."cover-ups" are perhaps an expertise/interest of Western criminals.
In any event, it appears that we will have ample evidence, and as importantly, quickly-acquired (!) to present to those states/nations that wish to see it first, before giving us further support. Sure, perhaps the nations/states are all blowing smoke up our collective arsh on this, but we
have the CAPABILITY to present this massive evidence (exactly what they said they wanted) and QUICKLY. This could tip one/two/three nation/states our way.
(2) I was surprised at the overwhelming support/desire for bringing Bin Laden to justice. Even a state like Iran APPEARS to want to see this guy gone, or, apparently, will not be getting actively in the way of any action of ours. (Iran, India, and Russia met about joint terrorism issues a couple days ago, and reaching some conclusion. Given Russia's strong U.S. support here, I can't imagine Iran is in the opposite corner). So far, Pakistan has given about as good a response as one could expect, given the involvement of their intelligence unit(s) on some levels, and the risks they face. Moderate Arab states (led by Jordan) are also clearly behind U.S. here. Last Tuesday, I did not expect this kind of early support.
Now, of course, as soon as the U.S. takes action, and one mis-step occurs (reports of innocent being killed in Afghanistan while hunting Bin Laden?), the goodwill the U.S. now enjoys will start getting used up. But at least we have some goodwill here, and that buys our military time to get closer to him and, closer to ending phase one of this battle.
I am encouraged that many states (whom I didn't know/think we could count on for full support) see terrorism as a "we might be next" issue. Countries like Russia, China, etc.
(3) The fact that Bin Laden has coordinated this is actually encouraging. Let me explain. My biggest fear last Tuesday was that there was SOME OTHER big terrorist group that had arisen, that few knew about...ie...an addition to the "cause". The fact that it is likely Bin Laden and friends means that we are up against the same bogeyman as years past. Nothing has changed. Except our urgency.
(4) (This is a big one) I am actually LESS concerned than many of my friends of future attacks against U.S. Why? I do expect add'l efforts, and some add'l ones have likely already been thwarted, but if you look at Bin Laden's MO...he is not one to produce attacks every week, or few days. Rather, he seems to prefer a big-event, well-timing, well-coordinated attacks. Those event takes planning, time, (distribution of) money, etc. The attacks last Tuesday were EASILY the biggest operation he's every done. Although, of course, I think we need to be very careful over next many weeks, months, in some respects, I think Bin Laden and group have "shot their collective wad" for the short-term. I could be wrong, but I do not believe they are set-up well enough to execute continual attacks for days/weeks without end at this time. That is not his MO. If it were, I think we would have seen this (continuous) activity overseas before now. After the Cole bombing, for instance.
As a result, this gives the U.S. an opportunity to throw some good punches (attack) here, and, possibily get Bin Laden and group playing so much "defense" on their heels that they won't have time to play "offense" over the coming days/weeks.
(5) Are the terrorist cells are impenetrable as everyone thinks? First, Bin Laden lost quite a few guys this go 'round. I am assuming that he used his very best "terrorists" on this event. I question his bench strength. Although the CW is that there are literally hundreds, thousands, more of these guys ready to strike at any time, are the rest/remaining as smart as those who carried out this act? How successful can they be in this new world of "everyone's hunting a terrorist"? They no longer have the element of surprise (a huge advantage), nor, in some cases, the same rights as other citizen. Every Arab-looking male w/a briefcase, backpack, etc. is going to be eye-d up and down all around this country and overseas. Their task is going to be more difficult, and this against a backdrop in which they are the hunted.
I believe that the lower troops will struggle if they are not receiving close instruction by the few in "upper management". In fact, I think we saw those breakdowns late last week. Some of the "lower" didn't know what to do end of the last week, likely because they got cut-off in communication by higher ups after the first attack.
(6) Although everyone talks about how difficult the Russians had it years ago, I think we have a better shot of getting Bin Laden inside Afghanistan that many think. Why? First, I think satellite technology has improved in the last 10 years. I think we will better be able to identify camps, movement, and possibly Bin Laden, then one could have attempted 10 years ago. Secondly, the Taliban are going to have their hands full. Not only are the U.S. likely going to fight them full force south of Kabul, but the Northern Alliance will likely turn aggressive (with U.S. help?) from the north. I expect the Northern Alliance (w/U.S. help) will try to take Kabul early- that will be a massive, distracting battle for the Taliban. And finally, their supply chain from Pakistan may be, at a minimum, disrupted, and, at a maximum cut-off. My understanding is that Taliban now employes Saudi, Pakistanis, etc. as fighters, so they obviously no longer have an unlimited supply of troops at their disposal, and likely less than in the Soviet occupation days.
In no way am I trying to diminish the task, just to say that conditions are likely more favorable than what the Russians faced, and perhaps much more favorable.
In conclusion (!):
OK, sorry for the rambling. But I, for one, am feeling more optimistic than last Tuesday. Of course, this thing has a long ways to go, but I do see some hope. Wish I could say the same for the markets. |
