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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (9530)	9/20/2001 7:29:37 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

<Think clearly, but think now. You did not price in WTC in your positions and allocation, because I did not price in WTC.> Jay, I think I'm thinking clearly and I think I priced WTC and a lot more besides into my CDMA position. I try to be ahead of what other people think [which is what investors have to do to exceed T-bond returns]. So, when you discover that there really is a WTC disaster, you discover that I'm already on the other side, waiting for you to arrive. I know that everyone hadn't priced WTC and the collateral damage into QUALCOMM and that Q! would therefore drop when events like that happen. But since I can't predict when they will happen, I have to assume they will and predict what the outcome will be. As I expected, people are starting to understand that communication is one of the most fundamental requirements of humans. Even before $12 martinis. Mobile communication is vital too. That means cellphones and that means CDMA. Humans are mobile. The news was full of cellphones and now the Verizon stores are full of people buying CDMA phones. Since QUALCOMM is the company with the CDMA monopoly [they own the patents] and the primary supplier of ASICs to the CDMA manufacturers, they are in the best position. Cellphone makers will compete to be the best CDMA supplier, which will cause thin margins but huge volumes. Service providers will compete to be the best CDMA supplier, which will cause thin margins but huge volumes. People will cancel their airline travel and make cellphone calls. People will cancel hotel reservations, and make cellphone calls. People will cancel expensive restaurants, new SUVs and buy cellphones. Sales of Bollinger's top wine, "Irrational Exuberance" will go through the floor but they'll buy cellphones. So, in the midst of market mayhem, QUALCOMM is not dropping excessively, being not far from where it was 15 months ago, while others are in the process of rounding out to a post Y2K horizontal asymptote nearer zero than their highs: siliconinvestor.com siliconinvestor.com siliconinvestor.com siliconinvestor.com siliconinvestor.com siliconinvestor.com siliconinvestor.com Those are some of the more aesthetically pleasing graphs. Some are more ugly, such as Globalstar, Ford and many which didn't have the smooth growth, irrational exuberance then rapid descent back to reality. Companies near-zero and many other which have rounded out to a post Y2K 21st century reality have not got any significant distance to fall in market capitalisation because they are already near-zero or fairly priced. You would say that people will panic and go much cheaper than fairly priced, say to P:E of 10. Well, with my idol Uncle Green$pan stoking the furnaces and Uncle Sam manning the guns on USS Enterprise on Operation Infinite Justice, I would not want to get in the way of that juggernaut. The USA is not going to fall quivering to its knees because some crazed superstitious power-freaks with box cutters managed to hit the jackpot. No other aircraft is going to be hijacked. Security at airports can be reduced. Security at water supplies and power stations should be increased. No other aircraft is going to be hijacked because every plane will offer instant resistance to anyone who says "I have a bomb and a box cutter and I want to go to Havana". Pilots will have their doors locked. The first person to bust the door open will get an axe through his head. Meanwhile the passengers will be clubbing the hijackers with duty free whiskey bottles, fists, toothpicks in the eye and many of them. So half the passengers will have to be hijackers if they want to succeed. But the pilot will switch off the engines, turn off the fuel, lower the flaps, depressurize the cabin, release the oxygen masks, turn the plane upside down and even if overcome, refuse to tell the hijackers how to get things back on track. Everyone needs cellphones. Everyone needs cyberspace. Nothing has changed other except that Y2K irrational exuberance has given way to the realization of the long trudge ahead. There are no miracles. Y2K was not the achievement of nirvana and Y2K+1 is not the end of the human dream. We are in the midst of a transition the likes of which the world has never seen. Superstitious medieval Islamic terrorists, Ted Kaczynski and other Luddites will not stop it because nearly everyone else wants the benefits of what is being created. QUALCOMM is in the vanguard. Humans need mobile communications and mobile cyberspace. QUALCOMM is the supplier of it. All 3G will be CDMA. You can depend on CDMA and you can depend on Uncle Al, Uncle Sam and USS Enterprise. Jay, abandon your medieval Aztec gold totems and join the new CDMA and cyberspace mobile enlightenment. Mqurice PS: Here comes China in CDMA: Message 16387304 Warning: CDMA and mobile telecoms will destroy the profits of the vast telecom industry which was charging a fortune in the 1980s for phones via their twisted pair. The main profits will go to the users of the services and the owners of the technology. Companies like Vodafone will continue to face increasing competition and lower margins. So will companies like Nokia as the cheap Made in China CDMA phones flood the world with mobile cyberspace. The point is, don't just buy cellphone companies such as AT&T which people are foolishly doing. AT&T and the GSM world is up a dead end street. GSM and GPRS cannot use spectrum effectively and spectrum is in short supply. In 2010, CDMA will be everywhere and QUALCOMM owns CDMA [and will still own it then].