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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (4615)	9/17/2001 2:08:32 PM
From: All Mtn Ski	Respond to of 33421

"This morning appears to be shaping up as a great day to buy equities." John, I agree and reduced my cash from 70% to 10%, very bullish for me. I was in Lake Powell for all of last week with no phone, TV or radio. I was shocked to learn the news upon my return. My family is from NYC and thankfully none were hurt, but the stories of their friends who died, some while talking to them on the phone, was extremely sad. I'm being a "Good American" and buying stock today. First prices are good, VIX, VXN, Tic and Trin numbers are in the range I was looking for to go long, and "They" would win if the market sustains a crash, thus the Plunge Protection Team has to act and not let that happen, all placing odds in my favor, IMHO. Volume is large as well, impressive given the circumstances the NYSE and NASDAQ are operating under, and also telling. Tom

To: John Pitera who wrote (4615)	9/17/2001 2:16:03 PM
From: IndexTrader	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 33421

John, Here is a post from Tim Ord (over at Crystal Ball) Susan Category: TA From: timord (tim ord) To: ALL Date Posted: September 17, 2001 at 12:36:53 Subject: Selling Climax This is the commentary we sent out last Friday, "We said on Tuesday’s (9-11) update, “A bullish Wyckoff move called a “Spring” was triggered yesterday, triggering us in on the long side on the S&P. If the recent lows do not hold, than a Bullish “Selling Climax” may occur next. A “Selling Climax” is a big down move with huge volume ending the down move in a climatic way. If a “Selling Climax” does occur over the near term, it will mark the end of the decline at least from the May 22, 2001 high if not the end of the decline off of the March 22, 2000 high. Either way, a strong rally will ensue after a “Selling Climax” is completed.” To end this decline a “Selling Climax” has to occur. Either it happens now or a little later. To gauge a “Selling Climax” is occurring, the VIX will exceed 40 and possible reach 60 and could even go higher. The intraday ARMS will exceed 4.00 and the “5 day ARMS” will reach near 10 or higher. The downtick readings will approach or exceed 1200. The volume will be huge, reaching 2 billion or more. The “CBOE total put call ratio” will exceed 1.06 and close near the high of the day. Usually a very large bullish candlestick pattern will form on the day of the low that coincides with a bullish downtick reading. If the statistics above materialize, than that will mark the pinnacle of the decline, and the market will start a strong rally. I don’t know what will happen Monday. Either the bullish “Spring” holds and the market bounces and delays the “Selling Climax” or that it heads into a “Selling Climax” now and ends the bear market. Either way the market is not far from a bull market starting. America will endure “one nation under God with liberty and justice for all”. The only end in sight is this bear market." So far we have the extreme downtick reading near 1200, and the high VIX reading over 40 and the volume will be huge today exceeding 2 billion along with the "CBOE total put call ratio" exceeding 1.06. Therefore the "Selling Climax" is happening now. It could last one more day. Times like the present (statistics wise) are rare. After the "Selling Climax" a re-test is likely and that would be the time to look at call options. all the Best. Tim Ord [ Read Replies ] [ Index ] [ Forum Menu ]

To: John Pitera who wrote (4615)	9/17/2001 4:38:07 PM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 33421

The FOMC's policy statement is below. We expect continued ease to bring the policy rate to a 2.5% low by mid-November. The funds futures market prices the December contract with an implied funds rate of 2.55% and a February low of 2.5%. The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 3 percent. In a related action, the Board of Governors approved a 50 basis point reduction in the discount rate to 2-1/2 percent. The Federal Reserve will continue to supply unusually large volumes of liquidity to the financial markets, as needed, until more normal market functioning is restored. As a consequence, the FOMC recognizes that the actual federal funds rate may be below its target on occasion in these unusual circumstances. Even before the tragic events of last week, employment, production, and business spending remained weak, and last week's events have the potential to damp spending further. Nonetheless, the long-term prospects for productivity growth and the economy remain favorable and should become evident once the unusual forces restraining demand abate. For the foreseeable future, the Committee continues to believe that against the background of its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate economic weakness.