Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Biotech / Medical : Biotech Lock-Up Expiration Hell Portfolio -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tuck who wrote (415)	9/18/2001 1:08:20 PM
From: tuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1005

Not that BLUE HP has cash or is recommending going long or short these days, but certain issues appear to have been beaten up about as much as possible. Per calculations mentioned here a couple of weeks ago, ARNA should have around $8 share cash. If they in fact sign a couple of deals, they'll be cash flow positive. At $9 this would seem a bargain if their technology is not about to get obviated. In this macro environment, it's hard to guess if this BLUE H stock has a real company specific problem or is victim of massive VC & fund redemption-related bailing. Anybody have an opinion about their technology versus its now very small research premium? Help! MCLS keeps making deals without royalties involved. Probably a bargain at a buck; I should bring this one to the attention of RW Reeves. POZN and TWTI are getting interesting again. I nibbled a bit of TWTI yesterday. ITMN has strong support in the high 20s. As for BLUE HP, BDAL goes out the window at any price should ITMN get to those levels. I like BDAL, but feel that I will get more opportunities to buy it cheap than ITMN will give me. CIPH worth trying in the very low 3s, at or slightly below cash. RIGL very steady in the low 5s; it saw high 3s in April, but a few deals, none huge, have been inked since then. GNVC, LSBC, VGNX, all near cash. AGIX near lows despite possibly positive data since then; currently priced as if data showed outright failure. LEXG has so many deals that it looks quite cheap under $7, too. But has BLUE HP has capably proven, cheap can get cheaper. Those that are near cash with low burns are likely safest, along with those with proven leading products on the market. A few come to mind, such as BDAL and ITMN (whose management's deal making expertise in terms of licensing good candidates is top-notch, IMO). Maybe TWTI & CIPH, but only BDAL is reporting positive earnings right now. The definition of "proven leading products on the market" is left vague; use your own. Finally, I find it interesting that, except for ARNA, BLUE H volume has been relatively low so far this week. Cheers, Tuck