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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: energyplay who wrote (8099)	9/17/2001 8:42:02 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 23153

Very well done: beyondirc.net

To: energyplay who wrote (8099)	9/18/2001 1:01:17 AM
From: upanddown	Respond to of 23153

Did anyone think we were in a bear market? Au contraire. According to the Dow, a mere correction..until today. The usual definition is a major market index closing 20% below its previous high close. The DJIA fell below 20% intra-day earlier this year but never closed below it...until today. Now down 23% and the last market to fall into the grasp of the grizzly. According to this, this bear is already a little long in the tooth at 18 months for the Naz and S&P and 20 months for the Dow. The eight bear markets we've had since 1960 (excluding the current one) have lasted 12 months on average, during which the S&P index declined an average 29.3 percent. It typically took the index another 20 months to climb back to its pre-bear peak. Of course, some of those downturns were mere Pooh bears -- the 1990 bear market lasted just two months and saw stock prices decline "barely" 20 percent -- while others were full-fledged grizzlies -- the 1973-74 bear market dragged on for 21 months during which stocks lost 48.2 percent of their value. The S&P has declined 32% so that is also above-average. Where did the time go? Seems like only yesterday the big-hair types on CNBS were breathlessly gushing on about the fabulous stock market. John