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Non-Tech : The Carnage of Airline Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Labrador who wrote (7)	9/18/2001 12:36:03 AM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 20

A few points: (1) Not all airlines have as high a debt level as Continental. For some like Northwest it is worse. For others like Southwest it is considerably better. (2) The US airline industry is more fragmented than any other country that I am aware of. I expect that the FTC will now be much more conciliatory on antitrust matters. (3) On the demand side, although the industry is sensitive to the economy, I do not see long-lasting "fear of flying" effects due to these terrorist attacks. We will get a handle on the necessary security issues. Many simple things can be done to make airplane highjackings impossible, for example, eliminating the door between the cockpit and the cabin. This would require planes to be retrofitted with doors directly into the cabin to be used only by crew. Both corporate and leisure travelers will return to flying as soon as they feel safe. (4) We should begin to establish realistic buy targets for individual airline companies based on their intrinsic worth and a gradual return to normalcy. A dollar cost average scale down buy program would probably be the best approach. (5) Some airlines have already declared bankruptcy (e.g. Midway) and others may do so in the weeks and months ahead. I think we should focus on carriers with strong balance sheets that can carry them through the current difficulties rather than expect Congressional bailout packages to preserve the industry intact.