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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (123138)	9/17/2001 11:50:57 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

<<wars do usually have a positive effect on the economy and the markets, but only as long as one is a) sure to win and b) doesn't become the target of devastating counter-attacks at home>> ...and of course, neither of these is likely to be the case here. I support a "war" of sorts, but it's gonna have to be the sort of counterterrorist, counterinsurgency type of conflict requiring excellent intelligence capabilities that the US has not particularly excelled at in the past (to wit, Saddam still lives). This is not to say we can't develop the necessary skills, but they aren't available "off-the-shelf". It will certainly be a prolonged struggle with a poorly-defined enemy, about as far from an "easy" Desert Storm-like victory as any military action could be. Unfortunately, the finer points of the situation are lost on many stock analysts, strategists, politicians and talking heads meaning that somewhere down the road our political resolve to continue this path will be tested. Tragically, 5000+ dead gives us a major leg-up in the backbone department, but I hope the effort can be sustained for as long as it will be necessary (5-10 years or more, IMO). It will be expensive, unpopular at times internationally and possibly bloody. Not the sort of environment conducive to launching a major bull market (though definitely the environment for launching massive inflation, if the residual debt-trapping from the bubbles can be overcome).

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (123138)	9/18/2001 1:46:51 AM
From: Don Lloyd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

hb - ...wars do usually have a positive effect on the economy ... Message 16337014 "...As recently as 50 years ago, economists regarded the vitality of the economy as consonant with its ability to produce things people want (and would pay for). Today, the economy has been redefined into something called the Gross Domestic Product, or GDP. It measures all goods and services brought to market in a given year. But is it really an accurate measure of how well an economy is serving people's needs? Here are some outlandish ways the GDP can be boosted...." "...Start a war. Preferably one far away where no Americans get killed. B-2 bombers, tanks, bullets,...all count in the GDP. Also, send Stinger missiles to liberation armies around the world. Maybe some of these missiles will be used to knock down airliners. Replacing them helps the economy, and, if lawyers get involved, there's a GDP bonus. ..." Regards, Don