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To: andreas_wonisch who wrote (55706)	9/18/2001 10:48:53 AM
From: Tony Viola	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

More realistic would probably be a decline of about 50%-75% on average last week (the first few days worse then a slow recovery). Also sales in the rest of the world were probably only marginally affected. So overall I think the lost PC sales won't be that bad (7.5%) but probably in the low single digits percent range. The bigger problem are IMO the long term effects since consumer confidence could be way down. Andreas, as soon as I heard people saying that mobile phone sales should go up because of the obvious benefits they have that were dramatically displayed in the disasters last week, I thought about PCs and what might happen to their sales from all of this. The pessimistic side of me came to the conclusion you state, about consumer confidence. But, the optimistic side said, what person that has even just $500, say $800 on average, wouldn't spend that amount of money on a computer that can be connected to the Internet 24X7X365? Maybe we're different, but I was looking at the PC as much as TV, for news, looking up maps of the middle East, history and profiles of the usual suspects, etc. in the last few days. We'll have to wait and see. Sometimes, completely out of the realm of the expected events produce unexpected results. Tony