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To: Bilow who wrote (183289)	9/18/2001 1:41:48 PM
From: MSI	Respond to of 769667

Yes, that's what I was referring to when I said "complexity". They've also increased chip real estate, tho' and more, faster, denser, cooler circuits, which contributes to parallel pipelining and the greater speed that Moore's Law refers to. Not an exact comparison, granted, but the vast materials research knowledge no doubt helps PVs mass production and efficiency. What I'm expecting is that price/demand equation will tip at some point when volume drives production ingenuity for volume and cost-efficiency, just like the PC revolution has driven complexity and speed. It won't be a 10,000X improvement, but the point is that it doesn't have to even be more than 5X to cause a revolutionary impact, since we're at $5/watt now, and $1/watt would make a $5k installation provide useful power for the average house, and not appear to cost the owner anything when amortized and deducted from grid costs. One of the other posters expressed doubts about chemical pollution problems from production of wafers, and the interim storage, etc. My comment is that there are new, non-exotic, as well as exotic methods coming onstream. Demand changes everything, will drive these also from the lab to practicality. Huge demand and cheap PV once achieved, make other things easy that now look hard. For example, hydrolysis seems impractical due to inefficiencies, but with free energy supply becomes a practical consideration, among many others. One thing I'm sure of: when an old-timer firmly ensconced in one technology says competing technologies won't work, I look to others with a "can do" attitude, and then check the calculations myself.