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Strategies & Market Trends : Trend Setters and Range Riders -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Connor26 who wrote (2922)	9/18/2001 12:44:20 PM
From: Susan G	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26752

biz.yahoo.com

To: Connor26 who wrote (2922)	9/24/2001 9:55:37 PM
From: Susan G	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26752

September 24, 2001 - The Right Line Report ***** MARKET COMMENTARY ***** After plummeting mercilessly last week, markets mounted a fairly impressive rally through the whole of Monday's session. The Dow, down better than 14% in the prior five sessions, added 367.63 on the day to finish at 8603.44, the fifth-best single-day gain on record. The Nasdaq followed suit, gaining 75.85 for a 1499.04 close. Quite a reversal from last week's doom and gloom . . . . . . except for the skepticism. Make no mistake, this WAS a powerful one day reversal that lifted both technology and blue chips. Market guru Abby Joseph Cohen even bumped her allocation for equities from 70% to 75%, but the positive sentiment was far from universal. Doug Cligott of JP Morgan spearheaded the bears' case with the cautious advisory that the bear market could yet have quite a way to go, opening the door to questions of just what WAS going on Monday. Was it authentic buying or merely short covering as traders legged out of last week's downside positions? There's little doubt that short covering played a role Monday, but exactly how much remains to be seen. Markets will get another test Tuesday after AOL-Time Warner (AOL) issued an earnings warning after the bell, and UBS Paine Webber produced an investor optimism survey that drips pessimism. Frankly, most all the technicals show that we're wildly oversold, but technical indicators don't seem to be holding their weight these days, particularly those (like the volatility index) that are signaling a market bottom and screaming buy signals to unconvinced traders. Nevertheless, many segments that took it in the teeth after the New York attacks bounced nicely Monday, most notably the airlines, which were joined by retail, networkers, and chips in moving higher. Some speculate that some of the rally could be related to a sharp decrease in the price of oil, which slipped almost four dollars per barrel Monday on the realization that OPEC will have difficulty maintaining higher prices with their biggest customers in recession. At the end of the day, the uncertain geopolitical environment continues to conspire with an uncertain economic situation to cast a long shadow over even the most impressive rally, and we remain cautious despite Monday's upside bump. On the economic front, we'll get Consumer Confidence and Existing Home Sales Tuesday. Later in the week Thursday brings Initial claims, Durable Orders, the Help-Wanted Index and New Home Sales. We wrap the week Friday with the GDP, Michigan Sentiment, and the Chicago PMI. While these will probably receive greater attention this week than last, expect markets to remain in something of a general malaise until there is firm evidence that the overall economy has stabilized and there are actually EARNINGS on the horizon, rather than the current uncertainty. Ken Biggio, Senior Analyst siliconinvestor.com