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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (19131)	9/18/2001 12:04:19 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

Sept 18 INDEX UPDATE ---------------------------------- In light of yesterdays strong sell-off, and strong oversold region, I am expecting some sort of a short-term rally. However, I do not expect the forthcoming short-term rally to be strong. It may only be just a 2-3 day affair or even a one day/intraday thingy. Yesterday I did go long both stocks and mutual fund(UOPIX=long-NDX), but for non-technical reasons, since the NAZ/NDX are still in pending NEGATE CLASS 1 SIGNAL territory. So if the market does continue to rally from todays open, I will be closing/hedging my longs once/if my short-term technicals get to the midrange. One issue that many, especially the analysts forget/decide not to mention is that in a downtrend the chances of a retest of the recent lows after a rally is good. As mentioned in the past often, I did an analysis that covered 30 years back to 1970, a few years ago. The conclusion I came up with was that for declines of greater than 7%, the probability of a retest was very high. The timeframe for such retest could vary from a few days to months. For those who are totally ignoring this analysis, just remember back the rally into MAY after the APRIL LOWs, where many/analysts felt very strongly that there would be no retest, and some of them were extremely adamant. Having said that, nothing in the market is 100%, just that the chances of a retest after a rally has high probability. Retests can set lower lows, but unless the lower low is less than 7%, then it just may be a successful retest, whereby a strong rally could follow. In light of season issues/strong oversold technicals, I am suspecting that the market rallys into next week, with the possible retest starting near the week of SEPT 24. Whether the rally started already, Im not sure - need to see how today closes. Also want to add that this forthcoming short-term rally into next week may not be obvious, but could take the form of a few oscillations with a slight incline overall. So watch out for the possible retest, which could be violent and even set lower lows. But once that is over, I an suspecting some sort of a significant rebound which could be FIBONACCI in nature.

To: donald sew who wrote (19131)	9/18/2001 12:33:18 PM
From: Sonki	Respond to of 52237

don, dont forget option expiration this week. Stocks may rally to some open interest level and retest next week. s&p operating erning is ~50* 18 (pe) =900. Most of the stks are coming to Oct 98 (asain flu). Spy was around 90-95 at that time. Qustion: When you say 7% decline below retest. How do u account for market being closed for 4 days? If u r looking at vol and % decline would you spreaad across 4 days? or just one day?

To: donald sew who wrote (19131)	9/18/2001 12:45:25 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 52237

No doubt we are short term oversold, but if the long term is going to have any hope energy prices "must come down" the cost of energy is permeated in every thing we do. ----------- The push for cap gains TAX scares the hell out of me, I told every one the last time it would kill "widow and Orphan" type funds first. "it always does" Take CSCO over half of the NEW SHARES that diluted the hell out of her were because of cheap options to the Big insiders. That is repeated over and over where CEOs CFOs and others get options for pennies on the dollar, . You can bet they want a cap gains tax cut. It looks like it's going to be forced through, and the general public is being brain washed into thinking it's a good thing, while it primary function is to let insiders and the underwriters dilute stock & rip off the public with out paying as much tax. Most of the articles you read on this won't agree, the Lobby for it knows how to put up arguments slick enough that would have Eskimos buying refrigerators. They predominate the major news media. I told every one who would listen the last Cap gain Tax cut was the prelude to a market melt down but no one would listen. It could take another 5 years to find a bottom , BUT even if the carnage does stop I'll bet in the next 5yrs the major indexes will not make a new high, & it maybe 10 to 20ys before we see March 2000 again .. ------------------ The majority of People can't retire off of stocks, there is no real money behind them for that to work; the economy must expand considerable faster than people retire if the market is to go up, as it takes more money coming in "just to hold" a level due to slippage , the crap that there's a buyer for every seller and that makes it OK is BS, the shares still become more and more diluted as almost 25% is going to insiders dumping out and the market makers. I always said it was a glorified ponzi scam, but I thought like some others the crooks could keep it going until 2010...but now I think they know they've lost it and just want to prolong the collapse and milk it as long as they can. Take CNBC yesterday, calling BAD- GOOD, a bloody nose is good just because it's orderly ? Crap. Short term rallies seem to run into resistance just to soon, The VIX looks A OK right now , but it's not just it's level that counts , It has to stay high ( above 30 ) for long enough to build a base. If every time the market rallies some it drops right back to the low 20s then we don't have what it takes to keep going. I want to see 3months of VIX ( or at least 2 ) with an average above 30 before I will think we have enough bearishness to break above any meaningful resistance to end this bear market & at this time I have little hope that's going to happen. ---------------- Jim