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Technology Stocks : i2 Technologies -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: notblake who wrote (2042)	9/18/2001 9:39:10 PM
From: SecularBull	Respond to of 2339

I disagree with you. I think that i2 could easily see $100 per share in the not-too-distant future!! ;^) ~SB~ >2 years

To: notblake who wrote (2042)	9/18/2001 10:08:54 PM
From: techanalyst1	Respond to of 2339

You're basing valuation on p/s. How do you know what sales are going to be? So many companies are guiding lower and Itwo's deals are not exactly pocket change. It's conceivable that estimates are too high. And they're burning cash aren't they? Have to take some cash off the balance sheet for that. Still... valuation seems pretty decent to me. Funds generally don't buy stocks priced this low though and it's no longer eligible for margin. That knocks off some people who might buy it. Maybe a reverse split would help some of these techs... Course then they're going to probably get some shorts jumping in, but eventually they'll have to cover sending the stock higher. I don't think it's fair to judge one companies valuation by another's. But at least msft is a software company. They have a lock on a market that itwo doesn't have though. Still... msft usually bottomed with a p/s of 6. But... this bear market seems to be ignoring valuations the same as the blow off bull market did. Who knows where the bottom is? Not me, that's for sure. Until there are more buyers than sellers, the stock isn't going to run away from anyone. TA

To: notblake who wrote (2042)	9/18/2001 10:51:30 PM
From: Sweet Ol	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2339

Notblake, I sold my private software products company last year after about 2 years of study and analysis of the market. I studied hundreds of private company sales before establishing a price for my company. I got about 3X just before the market crashed. Unfortunately I have discarded all my files on the subject, so you will just have to take my word for what PRIVATE companies sell for. Of course, if it is important to you, I suggest you do your own DD. Keep in mind that in my post I was observing that PUBLIC companies are getting down near the price of PRIVATE companies. Public companies have had unreasonable multiples because each of the owners own such a small portion of the company that the best way to make money is to sell your shares to a greater fool at a higher price. In recent years the astronomical share prices were justified because there was always someone who was willing to pay even more for them. Most of the increase in market cap did not come from earnings growth, most of it came from increasing multiples. Privete companies, on the other hand, are sold based on what the owner is willing to pay for the whole company. That price is based on how much the owner thinks they can make out of the company in a reasonable time. (An exception to this is a company that is bought for its strategic value, usually for the IP. Strategic sales can bring much higher multiples because of the potential synergism of putting the two companies together.) I will restate my original point that software companies are beginning to be valued in a more reasonable fashion. A good way to put things in the proper prospective is to imagine that your rich father offers to buy the entire company and give it all to you. The only stipulation is that you cannot sell it and you have to live entirely off of its earnings. Would you really rather have that company or would you rather have the same amount of money invested in T-bonds paying a lousey 5 percent? Or maybe even an "old economy" company that makes modest, but consistent profits. Do this exercise on your favorite companies and you may be surprised. Having said all of that, there is money to be made buying shares to sell to a greater fool. This last year I have made a lot of money borrowing shares from other people and selling them. Later on I buy them at lower prices and give the shares back to the people I borrowed them from. But, never confuse trading with investing. They are different games and have different rules. Best to all, John