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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (34281)	9/19/2001 4:01:51 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 68187

AMCC Cowen presentation: -High bandwidth focus, core, metro, out to edge, doing optical only, only silicon products -no last mile focus -mostly of historical business in core -bought MMCN which is edge product company, working mostly at core, so we both migrated to metro together -design wins in last Q, 50 percent metro -wins due to broadest offering of products than anyone else in metro OC48 (2.5 gig) sweetspot right now - at 10 gig alos have broadest offering of products -power and jitter key issues for this segment, scalability an issue too -mostly physical layer products -some migtation into switch products -trend away from ASIC's to off the shelf products like AMCC -Framers doing that about 2 years ago -network processor and switch products making the transition faster -taking share from customers as customer go away form customer products -competitors: OC12 to OC768, -attempting to get into markets earlier so the product will have a longer life -higher layers will pull in lower layers -higher speed and high layers are harder to do so there are barriers to entry -before 17 percent of sales from legacy products, 10 percent from higher layers -now 50 percent framer, 39 percent higher layers -tpyical 12 months from design win till product -before 70 percent was biploar CMOS -now 15 percent SiGe, 85 percent CMOS -moving to a fabless model -trying to do everything possible in CMOS -10G wins on SiGe first, now migrating to CMOS NT 14 percent last Q, only > 10 percent customer CSCO just under 10 percent ALA, LU, MONI Still spend a lot of time with start up as they work on newer technology - Fiscal year ends March -P/L 75 percent gross margin last year, longer term model 70 to 75 percent - now 54 percent gross margin -not being driven by competive pressures, due to fixed cost due to existing fab facilities -1.2 bil in cash, almost no debt -DSO better last Q -turn not great right now -Staffing key areas during down turn, cutting internal manufacturing and G&A area -View in 02: Service providers Optical spending higher in optical and core than traditional, IC sales overdriven to support those sales. Some re-bound in optical sales e Cap Ex totals for carriers 110 bil in 2000, 89 bil in 2001 79 bil (10 percent lower in 2002 than 2001) Percent of cap ex spent of optical: 99 20 percent 2000 25 percent 2001 23 percent of cap ex was optical AMCC sees focus is on services, expect increase in line card demand as opposed to boxes, IC content of optical equipment 2000 9 percent 2001 8.5 percent 2002 8.5 percent Note cap ex will decline though going forward. Expect 8.5 as the long term trend 2001 40 percent decline in com IC's, expect AMCC 33 percent re-bound in 2002 to 2 billion total Market share 13 percent in 2000, 15 percent in 2001, 20 percent in 2002 increase number is due to more outsourcing of higher level products Slide in AMCC website this year 26 percent decline in optical equip shipped.