To: 49thMIMOMander who wrote (15182 ) 9/19/2001 7:11:37 AM From: puborectalis Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 34857 Nokia keeps on keeping on September 19, 2001 12:00 AM ET by Rex Crum RELATED STORIES •Nokia in the hot seat •No relief in sight for mobile phone makers • More by Rex Crum -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- With the end of September approaching, nearly every telecommunications company is looking forward to closing the books on what has been nine of the most negative months in the industry's recent history. Typically, the last quarter of the year is the one that telecom companies look forward to because it is the time when a majority of sales are made. This year, however, there is less optimism in the sector because several companies have said there is little reason to expect business to pick up for the foreseeable future. Won't give up Even an industry leader as big as Nokia (NOK) is facing pressure. The wireless phone and networking sector has been hit by an overall slowdown in infrastructure spending, and concerns have been raised that because newer wireless services have been slow to roll out, people are waiting longer to trade up their phones for newer models. However, a general sour feeling toward the wireless industry hasn't stopped Nokia from pushing forward with its goals of reaching a 40 percent share of the mobile phone market and becoming the top provider of wireless network infrastructure. On Tuesday, Nokia introduced a new text-messaging service that the company believes will help lead older model phone owners, often called "legacy" phone owners, toward buying new phones that offer instant or short-messaging capabilities that are popular across Europe but have yet to catch fire in the U.S. "Legacy phone support plays a crucial role in the initial development of multimedia messaging services (MMS)," said Pekka Salonoja, vice president of server software products at Nokia. "This [new service] will fuel MMS as a mass market service." But it remains to be seen whether mobile phone messaging will take off in the U.S. Many workers and individuals are already connected to the Internet via pagers, mobile phones or their desktop computers. Why would the average person want or need to fumble over their mobile phone's miniature keypad when they can use their cell phone or PC to call or email whomever they need to reach? Service has potential For the user, Nokia's new text messaging service lacks simplicity. The service works on current phones using the GSM wireless standard. Instead of receiving a text message, the user will receive a Web page address and password for retrieving the message. The person will then have to use a computer to get online, and then enter the Web address and password in order to see the message. Despite the awkwardness of the new service, industry analysts believe Nokia is on the right track in the text-messaging space. "One problem here is that you don't have two-way capability [to send messages back]," said Tole Hart of Gartner Group Dataquest. "But think of it as a paging device, and paging is used widely here." The new service will be available in the fourth quarter, but any revenue Nokia would collect from its newest service will not likely have a major effect on the company's current or upcoming business cycles. Q3 on track On Sept. 11, Nokia sought to ease concerns that it would cut its third-quarter earnings estimates by reaffirming that it expects to earn 13 to 14 cents a share. Company officials said the earnings are being fueled by strong profits in Nokia's mobile phone division. Still, Nokia officials said overall sales would likely drop 5 percent from the $7 billion the company took in during the same period a year ago. The drop-off is being attributed mostly to weak sales in Nokia's mobile systems business. The traditionally strong fourth quarter may also prove a challenge for Nokia. Jeffrey Schlesinger of UBS Warburg lowered his fourth-quarter earnings estimates on Nokia to 15 cents a share from 18 cents a share, and dropped his revenue expectations to $7.7 billion from $8.6 billion due to the prospect of lower volume shipments of phones and weak network sales. Time to widen lead Still, Schlesinger said that Nokia appears well positioned for future growth. This is due in part to the fact that Nokia -- with 35 percent share of the mobile phone market -- is far and away the wireless industry leader, and in part because the company is taking chances with new text-messaging services, Schlesinger said. "In one or two years people in most parts of the world will be using mobile devices to do more than simply talk and send SMS [short messaging services] messages," Schlesinger said. "When this happens, investors will once again turn to Nokia." Bill Lesieur of Technology Business Research said that if anything, now is the time for Nokia to take more steps to consolidate its industry position and let the market know that it intends on remaining the sector's king. "I think Nokia should be more aggressive in developing a strategy to take advantage of the [industry] downturn." Lesieur said. "Nokia's new MMS gateway is just one more component of [the company's] strategy to deliver infrastructure that promotes the adoption of the mobile Internet."