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To: marginmike who wrote (123761)	9/19/2001 1:00:24 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

<<I dont think it will be as bad as in Japtown.>> I didn't use to, but now I think it may very well be worse. At least Japan wasn't fighting a war at home and abroad while they were "battling" their problems...

To: marginmike who wrote (123761)	9/19/2001 1:38:21 PM
From: Mike M2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

MM, Japan had a higher savings rate, trade surplus, gov't surplus when the TL & EV started there. In many respects we are entering our recession in a much weaker financial position with record low savings, record high private debt, current account deficit. The strength of the US $ has supported the bubble but the $ will decline eventually. I don't expect the US TL & Ev to be as prolonged as Japan's because we will eventually admit that the economic miracle of the 90s was a mirage created by Wall St, the Fed, the gov't, the financial ( dis)services industry et. al. . I do expect our US recession to be very painful Mike