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To: waverider who wrote (105038)	9/19/2001 2:05:16 PM
From: marginmike	Respond to of 152472

Realisticly I think the bounce should come at about S&P 1000, at worst 900 then nice rally20-30% then finall washout. I think we are real close to a washout, but I need a litlle more freeking out. My guess is if we close down 300 pts today people will start throwing in the towel, and will get massive redemptions of Funds. That is what we need IMHO>

To: waverider who wrote (105038)	9/19/2001 2:06:20 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Buffett: We have no idea - and never have had - whether the market is going to go up, down, or sideways in the near- or intermediate term future. What we do know, however, is that occasional outbreaks of those two super-contagious diseases, fear and greed, will forever occur in the investment community. The timing of these epidemics will be unpredictable. And the market aberrations produced by them will be equally unpredictable, both as to duration and degree. Therefore, we never try to anticipate the arrival or departure of either disease. Our goal is more modest: we simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful. Ben Graham, my friend and teacher, long ago described the mental attitude toward market fluctuations that I believe to be most conducive to investment success. He said that you should imagine market quotations as coming from a remarkably accommodating fellow named Mr. Market who is your partner in a private business. Without fail, Mr. Market appears daily and names a price at which he will either buy your interest or sell you his. Even though the business that the two of you own may have economic characteristics that are stable, Mr. Market's quotations will be anything but. For, sad to say, the poor fellow has incurable emotional problems. At times he feels euphoric and can see only the favorable factors affecting the business. When in that mood, he names a very high buy-sell price because he fears that you will snap up his interest and rob him of imminent gains. At other times he is depressed and can see nothing but trouble ahead for both the business and the world. On these occasions he will name a very low price, since he is terrified that you will unload your interest on him. Mr. Market has another endearing characteristic: He doesn't mind being ignored. If his quotation is uninteresting to you today, he will be back with a new one tomorrow. Transactions are strictly at your option. Under these conditions, the more manic- depressive his behavior, the better for you. But, like Cinderella at the ball, you must heed one warning or everything will turn into pumpkins and mice: Mr. Market is there to serve you, not to guide you. It is his pocketbook, not his wisdom, that you will find useful. If he shows up some day in a particularly foolish mood, you are free to either ignore him or to take advantage of him, but it will be disastrous if you fall under his influence. Indeed, if you aren't certain that you understand and can value your business far better than Mr. Market, you don't belong in the game. As they say in poker, "If you've been in the game 30 minutes and you don't know who the patsy is, you're the patsy." ---------------- If the Nas goes to 800 (and it could, no telling where panic selling takes us), then I'd predict a doubling, back up to the April lows, sometime in the following 6 months. And that would be a tradeable rally, and also a good time to initiate LT positions in the highest-quality techs. What we are seeing today is panic selling, an emotional and irrational market. There is certainly a pervasive fear in the market, and that is why I am (now) greedy. --------------------