Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marginmike who wrote (105046)	9/19/2001 2:24:55 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 152472

Like most investors, you exaggerate your ability to predict the future. Here's a test, which will deflate your arrogance: 1. At the first of every month, post where you think the Nas will be in exactly 3 months. 2. Post how confident you are about your guesses. That is, post the range around your guess, where you have a 90% confidence the Nas will be. 3. Do this for a year. At the end, you will have 12 data points. 4, I predict the results show you are overconfident. That is, I predict that less than 90% of your guesses (probably only about 50%) are within the range where you thought 90% of your guesses would fall. 5. The above prediction is based on robust data about investor behavior.