Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: velociraptor_ who wrote (13838)	9/19/2001 3:20:38 PM
From: NOW	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

targets for 4?

To: velociraptor_ who wrote (13838)	9/19/2001 9:54:52 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

Whadda make of this (got it off of Colorado K-wave thread...) On Wed, 19 Sep 2001 13:32:38 -0600, Bob Bronson wrote: >At 2:45 PM EST today, it appears that #3, in a 1-2-3-4-5 >pattern decline starting from the Sept 24-27 intraday highs, >is now ending. Triggered by the announcement of US air >strikes, we expect the #4 rally has started and that will >likely last only one week or so. As usual, it will reflect >that decline #5, which started at the end of July (summer) >highs, was declining at an unsustainable rate, obviously >accelerated by the terrorism attack. > >While the vast majority of analysts will consider the >Muslim-Extremist Attack on America (METAA) to be an >exogenous shock to the capital markets, we do not. As >my previous posts have explained, we quantify military >actions, including acts of terrorism, in the political >group of indicators of the four-paired factors in our >forecasting model: monetary-economic, political-social, >valuation-sentiment, and inter- and intra-market technicals. > >We expect the coming #4 Very Short Term rally (days) will >reflect a second look at the historically unprecedented >number and degree of monetary policy-maker interventions, >as well as additional fiscal-policy interventions, which >at this stage are mainly industry bailout considerations. > >We expect the subsequent #5 decline to bring the US stock >market down to an early October low, ending the Short Term >decline (weeks) that started at the end of July - the summer >rally high. We expect this early October bottom will likely >lead to only a Short Term rally (weeks), #4 in the 1-2-3-4-5 >pattern decline, which started on the May 22 spring high. > >Then finally following this October rally, we expect the >#5 selling panic MCHVIE to start in the next higher order >1-2-3-4-5 pattern Long Term (quarters) bear market from >the March 24, 2000 highs in the capitalization-weighted >index of all exchange-traded US common stocks. See the >attached .gif chart. > >We expect this selling panic MCHVIE will last until about >year end, reflecting complete capitulation by the consensus >of both trend-following fundamentalists and technicians, >ending what we expect will be the A downleg of an ABC >zigzag pattern decline. This will likely finally end the >discounting of the global recession consequence of the >bursting of the high-tech bubble, but it will not end the >deflationary Supercycle bear market period that we called >on 10/7/97. That report available to anyone on private >e-mail request. > >Of course adverse events in the emerging Anti-Terrorism >War/Campaign/Attack could again alter the timing of our >expected Growth Cycle based sequence of lower lows, but >meanwhile we believe it is a reasonable working model of >what is likely to unfold in the immediate days, weeks >and months ahead. > >Bob Bronson >Bronson Capital Markets Research