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To: JRI who wrote (123940)	9/19/2001 6:46:59 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 436258

that's a tall order. my expectations are roughly similar to those of Bronson...i think it will last until 2010-14, perhaps a little longer...i think the NAZ may well end up in a 30's style 90% wipe-out after a few intermittent rallies, the economic environment i expect to be roughly similar to Japan's over the past decade, with several cyclical recessions interspersed with anemic recoveries. unemployment, hard to say, in the official data it won't look as bad as it will get, but i don't think we'll see 30's style unemployment rates...only pretty high ones by recent standards. i have a dim view of the dollar longer term, as the dollar is the vehicle of the biggest malinvestment white elephants, as well as the foundation of the derivatives pyramid. the external deficit will finally begin to weigh on it imo, and so will the introduction of the Euro as a physical currency. Japan will continue to repatriate, and will come out of its winter sooner, thus creating upward pressure on the Yen. in view of all that, gold and silver are excellent asset preservers.