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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CpsOmis who wrote (8238)	9/19/2001 7:43:39 PM
From: CpsOmis	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

One more comment. I liked your charts, Dabum. However, I would like to put them in a slightly different context. You can see clearly the pop in the Nasdaq bubble, but the Dow hasn't popped yet. Before I got really involved in the oil markets a few years back, my wife just reminded me how I talked about the extreme evaluations and run up in the Dow being part of several trends. The first was foreign money running to the U.S. The second was baby boomers realizing that they, indeed would need to retire. The third was seeing 'easy money' as things kept 'going up'. I warned her that 'someday' the markets would get hit hard at some point when the music stopped, the 'bubble' burst and people ran for their chairs. I thought that the retiring of the baby boom generation would be the precipitating event. But, apparently, the event just may be correlated with foreign money. Will Japanese capital exit and return to Japan...note that the extreme rise in the Dow corresponded with the extreme fall of the Japanese market. What about other foreign money that is/will be increasingly concerned that the U.S. is not the safe haven that it once was? Just some thoughts...but have a look at the long term charts for Nasdaq and Dow.... the Nasdaq is following through on 'bursting', but the Dow hasn't yet begun, IMHO. My now deceased grandfather taught me in the late '80's not to overpay for a stock...with the highest P/E's in the range of 12-15 the high end for growth stocks. It would be a pretty intelligent excercise to review the average P/E of a basket of stocks over the last 50 years. How much you want to bet that it has skyrocketed in the last 10 years? bigcharts.marketwatch.com bigcharts.marketwatch.com Cosmo