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To: Victor Lazlo who wrote (131539)	9/20/2001 12:28:27 AM
From: GST	Respond to of 164684

Under "normal" circumstances, job cuts take a long time after announcements are made to finally come to pass. Much of that is in the pipeline already with more to come. But, added to those carefully planned cuts, there is now a wave of cuts related to tourism that will be large and immediate. Doormen, waiters, housekeeping, tour operators and a whole host of relatively insecure service employment will be quickly cut in the face of demand falling off a cliff. We will begin to see this in the morning with the unemployment claims and it will surge next week as well (IMO). We are moving from the cap ex telecom oil-price and capacity overbuilding post-bubble implosion period (a catchy phrase like that could really be a popular sound bite), and moving into the consumer just went into hibernation and sent the rest of the world into a tailspin phase of the recession. The next six to nine months are unlikely to resemble anything like an economic recovery -- everything about the recovery is "on track" -- you just have to set your watch back by one year.