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To: GST who wrote (131540)	9/20/2001 12:26:59 AM
From: Victor Lazlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

hey at least it's not 14% like France!

To: GST who wrote (131540)	9/20/2001 8:52:54 AM
From: Oeconomicus	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

"Real level of unemployment"? Yeah, right. What, if any, statistical basis do you have for this contention? BTW, anyone laid off in the last six months would still be collecting unemployment, unless they've found a new job. How is it that "many" of them are not being counted? PS: Jobless claims dropped sharply in this morning's report. They'll go back up as airline and tourism layoffs hit (unless being "furloughed" means you still get paid something - I don't know), but that still won't get us to 7-8% anywhere except your imagination.

To: GST who wrote (131540)	9/21/2001 8:55:48 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

If you add in those who simply dropped out of the employment scene for one reason or another (like going back to school) you can add one more percent to that -- in other words we are already approaching something closer to a "real" level of 7% unemployment -- and rising pretty fast. If we are going from a slow slide to a sharp drop in the economy, expect that number to climb surprisingly quickly -- i.e. add another point by Christmas for a total of between 7 and 8% depending on how you want to count it. At that point, unemployment will no longer be "low", and that is right around the corner. This is all true. Let's hope these people start looking for work.