SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Politics : America Under Siege: The End of Innocence -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Michael Watkins who wrote (4194)9/20/2001 2:15:17 AM
From: CIMA  Respond to of 27666
 
Arafat Scrambles for Cover

Summary

Palestinian Authority leader Yasser Arafat up to now has been
successful in driving a wedge between the United States and
Israel while retaining plausible deniability for suicide bombings
in the Middle East. But in the wake of the Sept. 11 attacks on
the United States, Arafat's strategy is in shambles. He is now
trapped between an unrestrained Israel and the anger of the
Palestinian public.

Analysis

Immediately after the events of Sept. 11, STRATFOR wrote that
Israel would be a major beneficiary of the attacks. We said:
"Given that pressures for Israel to restrain operations against
the Palestinian Authority will decline dramatically, it might be
expected that Yasser Arafat, anticipating this evolution, will
rapidly change his position on suicide bombings and become more
accommodating to Israel. In effect, today's events have wrecked
Arafat's nearly successful drive to split the United States from
Israel."

That appears to be what has happened. After agreeing to a truce
with Israel, Arafat took the unprecedented step Sept. 18 of
ordering his forces not to fire even in self-defense. In return,
Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has ordered a halt to
"unilateral action" by Israeli forces. The differing formulas
tell it all. Sharon has promised to withhold strikes unless the
Palestinians strike first. The Palestinian Authority has
committed itself not to strike under any circumstances.

Behind all this is a grim reality for Arafat. He was executing a
superb strategy. The suicide bombing campaign against Israel
allowed Arafat some plausible deniability, at least with Europe
and the United States. He argued that he was unable to restrain
the bombers because they were controlled by other groups such as
Hamas. The more intensely Israel attacked the Palestinians, the
more frequently the suicide bombings would occur. This argument
allowed Arafat to shift responsibility for events away from
himself toward Sharon and Palestinian radicals. He could play the
victim of both while generating sympathy for the Palestinians and
support for himself.

The intent of his strategy was to drive a wedge between the
Sharon government and the United States. Sharon's response to the
Palestinians had been to launch what was, in effect, a war
against the Palestine Authority's infrastructure: attacking
command facilities, assassinating leaders and moving into towns
to clear out armed Palestinians. It was little noticed that on
the night of Sept. 10, Israeli forces surrounded the town of
Jenin as part of this conflict.

But following the Sept. 11 suicide hijackings in the United
States, Arafat's strategy is in shambles. He is still in the
middle, but now he is trapped. He fully understands the United
States will no longer restrain Sharon. Arafat also knows Sharon
well enough to know he will seize any provocation to press the
war to a new level of intensity.

On the other hand, Arafat may not have complete control over the
suicide bombers attacking Israel. After the July 2000 Camp David
summit, Arafat deftly maneuvered himself into a position wherein
his policies were aligned with those of more radical
Palestinians. They had reached a mutual accommodation of sorts:
Arafat would use their attacks on Israel to position his
diplomacy, and the radicals would carry out operations to their
satisfaction and permit Arafat to exploit them for political
ends. This cooperation, or parallel play if you will, was not the
same as Arafat being in genuine control of all elements.

This means that although Arafat sees no alternative to accepting
a cease-fire, it is far from certain that all Palestinian groups
will accept it. Indeed, both Islamic Jihad and Hamas have opposed
the cease-fire, with Islamic Jihad vehemently opposing Arafat's
participation in a U.S.-led coalition against Osama bin Laden.

It will be much more difficult for these groups to operate now.
Arafat might not have controlled them before, but his
intelligence apparatus refrained from interfering with them. That
is primarily what the Israelis were furious about because they
felt Arafat could have shut down the bombers if he had wanted to.
Now it is in Arafat's interest to do so. He will certainly try
and to some extent succeed -- but not perfectly. There will be
bombings and Israeli retaliation.

Arafat is now trapped between overwhelming, unrestrained Israeli
force and the genuine anger of the Palestinian public. They
understand full well that Arafat has been trapped by events and
forced to retreat. What they don't see are the benefits that will
accrue from the retreat: Hamas and Islamic Jihad will argue
vehemently that Arafat and the secular leadership of the
Palestinians are politically bankrupt and that it is time for a
new generation to take charge -- a generation that is religious
in perspective.

We strongly suspect that those who planned the Sept. 11 attacks
were fully aware of the dynamic they were creating. Assuming the
attackers knew what they were doing, they understood their
actions would paralyze the American financial markets and air
traffic system. They also knew that by extension, their actions
would strengthen Sharon and weaken Arafat. That is precisely what
they wanted because it would serve to increase the strength of
Islamic forces within the Palestinian community.

If this develops as logic dictates, then Arafat will find himself
with nowhere to go but into Israeli arms. His one hope is that if
he reaches a settlement with the Israelis, the Israelis will
understand the benefit of improving economic conditions for
Palestinians, who have been devastated by occupation and war. If
Arafat cannot deliver the kind of victory that was possible a few
days ago, he must at least deliver a better life for the
Palestinians.

For that to happen, the Israelis must be prepared both to support
Arafat politically and to infuse capital into the West Bank. But
this would require radicals to permit a period of economic
stabilization -- and that is not very likely.
___________________________________________________________________

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< SEND THIS TO A FRIEND! >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Did you like this analysis? Then forward it to a friend!

Got this from a friend? Get your own by becoming a member!

stratfor.com



To: Michael Watkins who wrote (4194)9/20/2001 2:18:23 AM
From: jhild  Respond to of 27666
 
Who did it? Foreign Report presents an alternative view

Israel’s military intelligence service, Aman, suspects that Iraq is the state that sponsored the suicide attacks on the New York Trade Center and the Pentagon in Washington. Directing the mission, Aman officers believe, were two of the world’s foremost terrorist masterminds: the Lebanese Imad Mughniyeh, head of the special overseas operations for Hizbullah, and the Egyptian Dr Ayman Al Zawahiri, senior member of Al-Qaeda and possible successor of the ailing Osama Bin Laden.

The two men have not been seen for some time. Mughniyeh is probably the world’s most wanted outlaw. Unconfirmed reports in Beirut say he has undergone plastic surgery and is unrecognisable. Zawahiri is thought to be based in Egypt. He could be Bin Laden’s chief representative outside Afghanistan.

The Iraqis, who for several years paid smaller groups to do their dirty work, were quick to discover the advantages of Al-Qaeda. The Israeli sources claim that for the past two years Iraqi intelligence officers were shuttling between Baghdad and Afghanistan, meeting with Ayman Al Zawahiri. According to the sources, one of the Iraqi intelligence officers, Salah Suleiman, was captured last October by the Pakistanis near the border with Afghanistan. The Iraqis are also reported to have established strong ties with Imad Mughniyeh.

"We’ve only got scraps of information, not the full picture," admits one intelligence source, "but it was good enough for us to send a warning six weeks ago to our allies that an unprecedented massive terror attack was expected. One of our indications suggested that Imad Mughniyeh met with some of his dormant agents on secret trips to Germany. We believe that the operational brains behind the New-York attack were Mughniyeh and Zawahiri, who were probably financed and got some logistical support from the Iraqi Intelligence Service (SSO)."

Mughniyeh was the only one believed to have tried it before. On April 12th 1997, he was reported to be only two hours away from achieving the highest goal of any terrorist organisation (until last week): blowing up an Israeli El-Al airliner above Tel Aviv. A man carrying a forged British passport with the name Andrew Jonathan Neumann was in a Jerusalem hotel preparing a bomb he was supposed to take on board an El-Al flight leaving Israel, when it accidentally went off. Andrew Jonathan Neumann was very badly injured but strong enough to reveal later to the Israelis that he was not British but Lebanese, and that his operation was supposed to be a special "gift" to Israel from Imad Mughniyeh.

‘A psychopath’

"Bin Laden is a schoolboy in comparison with Mughniyeh," says an Israeli who knows Mughniyeh . "The guy is a genius, someone who refined the art of terrorism to its utmost level. We studied him and reached the conclusion that he is a clinical psychopath motivated by uncontrollable psychological reasons, which we have given up trying to understand. The killing of his two brothers by the Americans only inflamed his strong motivation."

Experts on Iraq and Saddam Hussein also believe that Iraq was the state behind the two terror masterminds. "In recent months, there was a change, and Iraq decided to get into the terror business. On July 7th, they tried for the first time to send a suicide bomber, trained in Baghdad, to blow up Tel Aviv airport (Foreign Report No. 2651)."

Our sources believe that it will be very difficult to get to the bottom of this unprecedented terror operation. However, they believe the chief of the Iraqi SSO is Qusai Hussein, the dictator’s son, and his organisation is the most likely to have been involved.

Mughniyeh, 48, is a "sick man", says an intelligence officer who was in charge of his file. He is considered by Western intelligence agencies as the most dangerous active terrorist today. He is wanted by several governments and the Americans have put a $2m reward on his head.

It was the assassination of one man in March 1984 that is said to have made Mughniyeh the CIA’s most wanted terrorist. Mughniyeh allegedly kidnapped the head of the CIA station in Beirut, William Buckley. The kidnapping triggered what later became known as ‘Irangate’, when the Americans tried to exchange Buckley (and others) with arms for Iran. However, the attempt ended in a fiasco. By one unconfirmed account, Mughniyeh tortured and killed Buckley with his own hands.

A year later, in a combined CIA/Mossad operation, a powerful car bomb went off at the entrance to the house of Hizbullah’s spiritual leader, Sheikh Muhammad Hussein Fadlallah. Seventy-five people were killed. One of them was his brother. Hunted by the CIA and the Mossad, Mughniyeh hid in Iran.

In February 1992, Israeli helicopter gunships attacked the convoy of the then head of Hizbullah, Sheikh Abas Musawi, in South Lebanon. Musawi, his wife and children were killed and the revenge attack followed a month later. According to press reports, Mughniyeh was called back into action and, in a well-planned and devastating attack, his people blew up the Israeli embassy in Argentina. The building was demolished and 92 were killed. Only last year, after a long investigation, did Argentina issue a warrant for Mughniyeh’s arrest.

The reprisal for the attack in Argentina came in December 1994, when a car bomb went off in a southern Shi’ite suburb of Beirut. Four people were killed. One of them was called Mughniyeh, but to the deep disappointment of those Israelis who planted the bomb it was the wrong one. Mughniyeh’s life was saved, but his other brother Fuad was killed. Mughniyeh waited for his opportunity for revenge.

Our Israeli sources claim to see Mughniyeh’s signature on the wreckage in New York and Washington. How to counter this kind of terrorism? "To fight these bastards you don’t need a military attack," said an experienced Israeli commando officer. "You only need to adopt Israel’s assassination policy."

janes.com