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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (52615)	9/20/2001 8:29:57 AM
From: Jerome	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Mike...no big hurry to buy leaps yet... As the price of AMAT and NVLS falls the forward premium for the leaps keeps shrinking. Because the outlook is so poor for most tech stocks the premium will change very little is AMAT is at 28 or at 30. I think it would be a better move to wait for a slight recovery prior to buying leaps. Right now if the AMAT 30's are purchased AMAT could drop to the 22 to 26 range, and those leaps would be an immediate loser. But if you wait until AMAT gets to 34 to 36 you will pay more for the 30's or the 35's but the fear of a drop to the 22 range will be much less. What I'm saying is that I would feel better buying leaps in an uptrending market rather than in a downtrending market. Now if you still feel determined to buy some leaps....give yourself a fair chance. Wait for another huge down side (Friday near the close or Monday about 1 PM Eastern). And keep in mind that leap values will fall the most on the day following the big down draft. And even with all this information its possible to fail miserably. Regards, Jerome

To: michael97123 who wrote (52615)	9/20/2001 8:40:41 AM
From: Tito L. Nisperos Jr.	Respond to of 70976

Michael, as for expiration dates, I prefer 2003s (16 months) to 2004s (28 months) because they are about 3 dollars less expensive. By the end of the 1st quarter next year, if I think the Market needs longer time to recover, I could RollOver or sell the 2003s then buy the 2004s to have continued peace of mind. Because I believe AMAT is going to go back to 115 or even surpass it (as per my YoYo projections) before the 2003 LEAPs expire --- any expiration price below 115 is OK to me. The nearer the Expiration price to 115, the least expensive they are and the least expensive, the more Calls I could get with the money allotted for LEAP purchases... but to be extra safe, you may want to get the 70 or less expiration price (halfway or below the price range of 115 high to the expected low in the 20s). For the past 2 Bull Markets, my favorite was 30 as the expiration price --- not too much out of the money --- because I wanted to trade them (sell then buy back) as the stock YoYo itself Up.