Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (8544)	9/20/2001 10:42:40 AM
From: Softechie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

When oh when is the question. I agree that market is way oversold but they keep on selling and giving up left and right. We're heading deep into recession with these airliners layoffs. On top of internet and telecom busts now we have airliner bust. That really hurt.

To: J.T. who wrote (8544)	9/20/2001 12:57:37 PM
From: SecularBull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

I concur with your assessment about what it will take to move this market back up. ~SB~

To: J.T. who wrote (8544)	9/20/2001 1:05:41 PM
From: SecularBull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

I just entered a GTC to buy SPY at $93. ~SB~

To: J.T. who wrote (8544)	9/20/2001 2:07:01 PM
From: High-Tech East	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

J.T. ... maybe you will be correct, and equities will melt-up shortly ... however, in my opinion, chart reading and other technicals have little to do with the action recently ... Two days ago, on Tuesday, I wrote on SI's All About SUNW, (which I consider my home) ... <<... I think there is a tendency, right now, for people to genuinely feel, in a psychological way, all of the negative economic and business news. When the small investor capitulates (and mutual funds are forced to sell millions and millions of equity shares), then we may be at or near the bottom. Lots of profit warnings due in the next two or three weeks, and equity markets are very fragile. My assessment is that we are very close to the final stage of this bear market, although who knows how long it will be after that for accumulation and movement upward to begin. I would not be surprised to see the S&P 500 at 850-900 by mid October.>> Message 16374167 I don't see any reason for my assessment to be different today (except that the S&P may get to 800) ... I am very happy with the March 1175 and 1150 S&P puts that I bought in late August and early September. S&P puts have been big winners for me since July, 2000 except for those of June, 2001 which expired worthless. Overall, they have really saved me. ... while I am talking about the bottom for overall U.S. equity markets in a macro sense, it may be that we will have no significant daily rallies until we hit what probably will be close to the real bottom ... That is why J.T., in my opinion, your predictions for equity rallies for Wednesday and Thursday (today) have been so far off from what has actually happened (although you have almost two hours left today before the markets close. Until there is some significant good news both politically and economically, I see no reason to believe there will be any significant rallies ... although I have certainly been wrong many times before ... Sincerely, Ken Wilson

To: J.T. who wrote (8544)	9/20/2001 3:52:12 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

JT; I just plugged in yesterdays numbers I hate to say it but..( it's worse ) ( way worse the bulls shot their wad on with that late rally.) They are now trapped and margin calls are going out again. The Money in the MM belongs to the bears and they have no reason to go long. ------------------- The total long Assets may be at three year lows, but the NAVS are lower, hence we still have bulls, hanging on and borrowing money to go long. The TA being inverted don't mean any thing in and of itself compare the NAVS to the TAs and you'll see it. ------------------- The VIX looks OK ( almost ) but it's not been high enough long enough to get any kind of ignition that will push us up beyond a half hearted rally. -------------------- We could even slip into the black hole within a week or two. CNBC is desperate telling us about all the good news and hinting at a bounce, that's real bad , just think of who their sponsors are. I have never seen so much bullishness in the face of so much downside. There is no capitulation not even a hint of it. The lower we go the more bullish the bulls get, & we won't bottom like that. ------------------ Why does the VIX need to stay high and not drop back at the first hint of a rally ? Think about the PUT sellers not the buyers, it's those sellers who have the dough to put a bottom in & only when they sell a big bunch of them long enough to people willing to buy the protection do they come in and support the market. The Bulls are broke and that MM fund now belongs to the bears. The GreenSpam/Senate meeting today was nothing but platitudes. Jim

To: J.T. who wrote (8544)	9/21/2001 12:21:38 AM
From: J.T.	Respond to of 19219

Rydex Total Assets Update for Wednesday, September 19th, 2001: Regular Series: SPX Long - NOVA 168.1 MillionBULLISH New 4 + year low SPX Short- URSA 281.5 MillionBULLISH Inversion NDX Long - OTC 714.8 MillionBULLISH - Near 3 Yr LOW NDX Short- Arktos 108.5 MillionBULLISH XAU Precious Metals 91.2 MillionBEARISH New 1.5 Year High Banking 17.7 MillionBULLISH - New 1 year low Biotech 243.7 MillionBULLISH - New 2 year low Money Market 1.606 BILLIONBULLISH Double Oversold ***************************************** Dynamic Series (200% correlation to Index) SPX Long - TITAN 37.1 MillionBULLISH - New 1 year Low SPX Short- TEMPEST 103.0 MillionBULLISH - Inversion NDX Long - VELOCITY 109.8 Million NDX Short- VENTURE 109.3 MillionBULLISH - All Time High ********************************************* The near term bottom is in. We WILL bounce higher tomorrow. Whether it is THE bottom is very debatable especially if another shoe drops with impending hearing of GATA (gold) lawsuit on October 9th. DOW and BKX approaching quintuple oversold levels. SPX, COMP and SOX below quadruple oversold levels. NDX and DOT below triple oversold levels. Only the IIX is above triple oversold levels. XAU is above double overbought levels but certainly could go higher given it is the only place to hide in the carnage. The profit from my gold stock trades I utilized proceeds for my tech trades purchases to scalp a quick return into the end of the month. Scalping equity trades was easy for me in the first two legs down of the Bear, and I continue to scalp gold stock trades very successfully. But I get a D+ in all tech stock trades since I have been down in all techs since late in the first quarter except for WAVC - and I am down in that now after milking this cow at a 100% success rate. I get a B in Rydex trading thru the end of May and an F since June 1st. The only thing I did right was selling my house at the top of the housing market. Now I see 2-3 new listings going up for sale everyday in my neck of the woods. And they said Santa is comin' to town in a few months? Maybe it is da grinch with bear clothing. <g> Regular Series: 100% Long NDX OTC Dynamic Series: 100% Long SPX TITAN Best Regards, J.T.

To: J.T. who wrote (8544)	9/21/2001 12:41:50 AM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 19219

Rydex Total Assets Update for Thursday, September 20th, 2001: (REVISED TO CORRECT DATE) Regular Series: SPX Long - NOVA 168.1 MillionBULLISH New 4 + year low SPX Short- URSA 281.5 MillionBULLISH Inversion NDX Long - OTC 714.8 MillionBULLISH - Near 3 Yr LOW NDX Short- Arktos 108.5 MillionBULLISH XAU Precious Metals 91.2 MillionBEARISH New 1.5 Year High Banking 17.7 MillionBULLISH - New 1 year low Biotech 245.9 MillionBULLISH - New 2 year low Money Market 1.606 BILLIONBULLISH Double Oversold ***************************************** Dynamic Series (200% correlation to Index) SPX Long - TITAN 37.1 MillionBULLISH - New 1 year Low SPX Short- TEMPEST 103.0 MillionBULLISH - Inversion NDX Long - VELOCITY 109.8 Million NDX Short- VENTURE 109.3 MillionBULLISH - All Time High ********************************************* The near term bottom is in. We WILL bounce higher tomorrow. Whether it is THE bottom is very debatable especially if another shoe drops with impending hearing of GATA (gold) lawsuit on October 9th. DOW and BKX approaching quintuple oversold levels. SPX, COMP and SOX below quadruple oversold levels. NDX and DOT below triple oversold levels. Only the IIX is above triple oversold levels. XAU is above double overbought levels but certainly could go higher given it is the only place to hide in the carnage. The profit from my gold stock trades I utilized proceeds for my tech trades purchases to scalp a quick return into the end of the month. Scalping equity trades was easy for me in the first two legs down of the Bear, and I continue to scalp gold stock trades very successfully. But I get a D+ in all tech stock trades since I have been down in all techs since late in the first quarter except for WAVC - and I am down in that now after milking this cow at a 100% success rate. I get a B in Rydex trading thru the end of May and an F since June 1st. The only thing I did right was selling my house at the top of the housing market. Now I see 2-3 new listings going up for sale everyday in my neck of the woods. And they said Santa is comin' to town in a few months? Maybe it is da grinch with bear clothing. <g> Regular Series: 100% Long NDX OTC Dynamic Series: 100% Long SPX TITAN Best Regards, J.T.