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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold and Silver Mining Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: goldsheet who wrote (2249)	9/20/2001 1:44:24 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 4051

Bob, you know I'm a forward thinker <g>. Indeed the numbers reflect 4qt, 2000 and 2 qt, 2001.

To: goldsheet who wrote (2249)	9/21/2001 10:04:41 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4051

Ok Bob, back to you. You keep posting these supply figures as if hedging decisions play no role. I have argued ad nauseam that hedging counts a lot and in fact is the primary element in the supply equation right now. Let's just use a hypothetical example. ABX will produce roughly 250,000 oz this month. What you haven't acknowledged is that they sold 250,000 oz years ago, and now they are delivering the physical real gold to it. So true, the world now has more gold, but in market terms ABX supplied that gold along time ago. Hence the definition of "accelerated supply". However current price and markets are dictated by transactions. There is no transaction when ABX delivers gold. A prior transaction is simply closed out. There would only be a transaction (a sell) if ABX elected to sell forward again to replace the old contract. Therefore the question is, given that there is virtually no contango anymore, why would ABX sell forward? IMO they won't, and will simply deliver into old sales contracts. Further, if they were smart, they would buy back the out contracts while they were cheap. The definition of this of course is "accelerated demand", and that's what I believe is going to happen and likely is happening as we speak. Whether it's ABX or not, I don't know, more likely it will be a Goldfields or a FN cleaning up the books of acquired companies. I'm astounded that few analysts give this dynamic much mention. Note that contracts two years out are a mere few dollars above the current spot price. I put this up for the umpteen time. quotes.ino.com