To: SirRealist who wrote (40623 ) 9/20/2001 3:54:29 PM From: ThirdEye Respond to of 50167 From Stratfor.com:: ..................On the other hand, Arafat may not have complete control over the suicide bombers attacking Israel. After the July 2000 Camp David summit, Arafat deftly maneuvered himself into a position wherein his policies were aligned with those of more radical Palestinians. They had reached a mutual accommodation of sorts: Arafat would use their attacks on Israel to position his diplomacy, and the radicals would carry out operations to their satisfaction and permit Arafat to exploit them for political ends. This cooperation, or parallel play if you will, was not the same as Arafat being in genuine control of all elements. This means that although Arafat sees no alternative to accepting a cease-fire, it is far from certain that all Palestinian groups will accept it. Indeed, both Islamic Jihad and Hamas have opposed the cease-fire, with Islamic Jihad vehemently opposing Arafat's participation in a U.S.-led coalition against Osama bin Laden. It will be much more difficult for these groups to operate now. Arafat might not have controlled them before, but his intelligence apparatus refrained from interfering with them. That is primarily what the Israelis were furious about because they felt Arafat could have shut down the bombers if he had wanted to. Now it is in Arafat's interest to do so. He will certainly try and to some extent succeed -- but not perfectly. There will be bombings and Israeli retaliation. Arafat is now trapped between overwhelming, unrestrained Israeli force and the genuine anger of the Palestinian public. They understand full well that Arafat has been trapped by events and forced to retreat. What they don't see are the benefits that will accrue from the retreat: Hamas and Islamic Jihad will argue vehemently that Arafat and the secular leadership of the Palestinians are politically bankrupt and that it is time for a new generation to take charge -- a generation that is religious in perspective. We strongly suspect that those who planned the Sept. 11 attacks were fully aware of the dynamic they were creating. Assuming the attackers knew what they were doing, they understood their actions would paralyze the American financial markets and air traffic system. They also knew that by extension, their actions would strengthen Sharon and weaken Arafat. That is precisely what they wanted because it would serve to increase the strength of Islamic forces within the Palestinian community. If this develops as logic dictates, then Arafat will find himself with nowhere to go but into Israeli arms. His one hope is that if he reaches a settlement with the Israelis, the Israelis will understand the benefit of improving economic conditions for Palestinians, who have been devastated by occupation and war. If Arafat cannot deliver the kind of victory that was possible a few days ago, he must at least deliver a better life for the Palestinians. For that to happen, the Israelis must be prepared both to support Arafat politically and to infuse capital into the West Bank. But this would require radicals to permit a period of economic stabilization -- and that is not very likely.