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To: H James Morris who wrote (131613)	9/20/2001 4:03:43 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164685

We could niggle with details, but your post points to some of the real reasons this market is going down -- forget all the nonsense about "irrational selling". The money is going back where it came from -- foreigners are selling. And our bond market is going to be in deep, deep doodoo when people realize the surge in borrowing implied by all these government spending plans while running BOTH an operating deficit ANd a massive current account deficit -- good luck with that one!!!! Institutions are selling because they have seen the future -- and it doesn't work. Good luck.

To: H James Morris who wrote (131613)	9/20/2001 4:13:46 PM
From: Mark Fowler	Respond to of 164685

Message 16318222

To: H James Morris who wrote (131613)	9/20/2001 4:26:06 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164685

HJ: I'll bet there isn't one in a hundred Americans who understand that when the US government commits to economic stimulus, it means going to foreigners and asking them to lend us some more money so we can prop up our economy. This time the cupboard might be a little less well stocked with willing investors -- and at any rate, it means higher borrowing costs which will in turn hit the housing market and all the markets that depend on housing -- add that to tourism as a casualty of this attack. The average American and I suspect most investors and business people do not understand the drag on the economy imposed by "government stimulus". Greenspan is already hinting that so-called "stimulus" will send the economy into a deeper recession than the one we are facing -- serious stuff HJ.

To: H James Morris who wrote (131613)	9/20/2001 4:41:27 PM
From: GST	Respond to of 164685

HJ: One other difficult point: This is about the time when the average person is going to become crispy clear about the difference between savings and equity -- equity is the money you put in risky things that disappears every day in a bear market. Savings is what you have stashed away someplace so you can pay the mortgage and still buy food for your kids after you have been laid off. Expect a wave of personal bankruptcies and a sharp deterioration in the asset quality of financial institutions -- where, by the way, there is also likely to be a sharp reduction in employment growth, and more likely a wave of layoffs. I could go on -- but I hope you get the picture -- this is not some one quarter little blip -- it is the beginning of a recession that people still can't bring themselves to predict, even though we are eyeball to eyeball with the beast. A madman in a cave half a world away just shot our economy right between the eyes -- and we created an economy that was totally vulnerable -- no savings and rampant stock speculation. We don't deserve this, but we sure did little to protect our economy.