To: fingolfen who wrote (143865 ) 9/20/2001 4:29:10 PM From: GVTucker Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 186894 fingolfen, OT, RE: airlines, a couple more points and then I guess we'll have to just agree to disagree. Yes, a few select carriers will be able to weather the storm better than others, but part of the problem with the airlines and their (lack of) profitability has nothing to do with over capacity, it has to do with government regulation. Government regulations cover everything from airports, to airport security, to airline trade unions. Government regulation is a fixed cost that is easy to incorporate into a company's cost model. And many other industries cope with regulatory cost just fine. Oil & gas, pharmaceuticals, and telecommunications are three industries that are all heavily regulated. Heck, it could be argued that telecommunications is just as vital to our economy as the airline industry. The government is rightly letting the companies that were excessively levered in that industry to go bankrupt. Part of the reason that there are problems in telecommunications can be attributed to the government, sure, but no one forced some of those companies to take on excessive leverage. Same with airlines. I'm primarily concerned about cascade effects (not the Intel processor). Today we lose 100K out of the airline industry. That is yet another blow to an already weak economy. What then happens to the travel agencies? They cut. What then happens to the hotels. They cut. These people now are chasing bare necessities rather than producing and spending in the economy which further weakens the economy. What industry cuts next? In short, the government needs to put liquidity into the hands of the consumers. The only way to do that is to break the downward spiral of cutbacks, layoffs, and down-sizing. Travel agencies are dependent upon demand for air travel. A bailout will not change demand for air travel. Hotels are dependent upon people traveling. A bailout will not induce more people to travel. Perhaps a bailout will keep some of those 100K people from losing their jobs as fast as they otherwise would have. But they, too, are eventually dependent upon demand for travel. So in the long run this doesn't help much. If you want to help those people that are laid off, it would be much more effective just to give them each a $50,000 cheque from the government. I betcha they'd prefer that, too. The main result of any airline buyout would be preventing the more overlevered airlines from bankruptcy. That leads me to my main conclusion: The main beneficiaries of any bailout would NOT be people who need it. It would be the shareholders of airline stocks and airline bonds. These people, many, many of whom are my industry peers, do not need nor deserve a handout. An airline bailout could be the first step. I agree, it's a band-aid. That's all it is. More fundamental changes are needed (lowering the capital gains tax or *gasp* eliminating it all together could also help). The band aid will slow, and may possible eliminate, the possibility of fundamental changes.