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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vector1 who wrote (8925)	9/21/2001 4:09:26 PM
From: Rocketman	Respond to of 9719

Yeah, the markets are getting damn scary, along with everything else. You can bet that we are now in a serious recession, and in a couple of quarters once they have done the math it will be announced how we went into a recession after the bombing. There is just a huge chunk of our economy that has gone into holding. Unless it is for a flag or one of the essentials of life, people have stopped spending money. This too shall pass, but it will take time. In the meantime market free-fall, which gives a negative wealth effect and causes even more belt tightening. Greenspan needs to loosen things up even more, but he is just too damn conservative. People are afraid to fly. There is no way to defend a plane completely at the airport, just can't happen, you can make a weapon out of just about anything, and easily conceal them. They need armed air marshals on EVERY flight, not just a random sampling. This is the only thing that will start to make people feel more confident about flying. Until this happens business travel and tourism are dead, a huge chunk of our economy. Gov't deficits are now a given as the unemployment is going to crimp taxes, require cash to pay the benefits, and the lack of profits and salaries are just causing tax revenues to plummet. The bright side, is that when the bottom is finally reached, those with cash are going to have some great buying opportunities in completely oversold companies. But it seems like the bottom may not yet be in sight. Rman

To: Vector1 who wrote (8925)	9/21/2001 4:12:22 PM
From: Rocketman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9719

Heard Steven Burrill, a true biotech visionary, talk at this years Gene Acres Biofacilities conference. Thought I'd share a few of his points: Up until last week, many people thought that his Stem Cells decision would be the biggest decision of Bush's presidency... Biotech raised $32B in 2000, $7B in 2001 YTD with an estimate of $10B for the full year. This is in comparison to about a $5B average for the years prior to 2000. After these terrorist attacks, biotech will be in better shape relative to other industries. System Biology is the next revolution. Value is moving from Rx (Drugs) to DX (Diagnostics) due to genomics. As you more personalize and customize drug usage, the diagnostics become more important and the drugs usage more targeted, and thus sales of each drug smaller. Biotech as an industry is near its bottom, shares are trading near their cash per share value when looked at as an industry. Much of the $40B raised in the last 2 years is still in the bank. Cap markets volatility will continue In bio large # of public companies, few analysts, little data leads to an inefficient market. Big Bio's will continue to acquire small ones (we don't have bankruptcy, but eat our own dead). Biotechs are THE source of innovation for the big pharmas. System Biology is the driving change Increases in diagnostics to direct the therapeutic product usage. Agbio/Nutraceuticals/BioMaterials are all emerging Challenges: genethics, cloning, gene therapy, Genetically Modified Organisms (GMO's), Stem Cells Rules of game continue to change..... As far as investing in biotech: Portfolio dynamics: buy in different bio sectors and stages then hold for 5 years. In the meantime: don't look and cancel your subscription to the Wall Street Journal. You can't successfully, consistently time this sector. My apologies to Steven Burrill for any misquotes in my paraphrasing. There was a lot more he said of course, but I didn't take copious notes. Rman

To: Vector1 who wrote (8925)	9/21/2001 4:37:12 PM
From: Rocketman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9719

What's the view on the prospects for Praecis (PRCS) these days? Anybody consider it a buy at its current price? Rman

To: Vector1 who wrote (8925)	9/21/2001 4:39:16 PM
From: Rocketman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9719

Best investment advice I've heard in a long time: If you bought $1000 worth of Nortel stock one year ago, it would now be worth $72. If you bought $1000 worth of beer one year ago, drank all the beer, and traded in the cans for the nickel deposit, you would have $79. My advice is to start drinking heavily. HERE IS TO DROWNING YOUR SORROW.... CHEERS!!! Rocketman out, off to earn some nickels chugging brews.... PS: you can tell I'm unemployed again, I have time to post on SI....