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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Oeconomicus who wrote (55148)	9/20/2001 4:54:59 PM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

I often use Stock market capitalization as a % of GDP as a valuation measure. When cheap is cheap? We were at 184% GDP at the top. This compares with 130% of GDP for Nikkie in Japan in 1989 and 100% of GDP in the US in 1929 (I don't remember that one exactly, but I do remember it was below 100%, probably even 70%! I've seen different quotes...). With S&P500 being the broadest market index, at 983, down from 1530, we are now roughly at 118% of GDP, or almost at the level of Japanese Nikkie in 1989. Nikkie has declined roughly 75% from it's peak, and the decline is not finished yet. Dow Jones has declined 89%, peak to bottom, in 1929.. All these numbers are just to put things in historical perspective... I think 500 is a HIGH estimate of NASDAQ bottom.... In fact, it may be 500% too high!!! The good thing is, NASDAQ was as much as 50% of GDP, and it has declined a lot already. So we are probably a bit lower than 118% of GDP right now.