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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (15127)	9/20/2001 11:55:26 PM
From: techreports	Respond to of 196510

200 million x 2.5% x $100 [Y2K dollars] = $500 million per year just on royalties. Then add ASICs, BREW, Eudora, PayPal, SnapTrack, PacketVideo and their income should be not too bad from China. Okay, I admit $500 million per year royalties won't be all that good compared with the other things. But that's just cellphone royalties. They will produce a LOT of other CDMA devices too and many people will have 3 CDMA devices, not one, by 2010. well, remember that's just one country. A very big one, but not Qualcomm's entire market. I think it is good to point out that the royalties are not going to be huge from China, but let's not forget that all 50 million subs are not going to buy sub-$100 phones. From the looks of it, smart phones with PDA capabilities will move the ASP of cell phones higher, not lower. This will also make chips inside phones more complex. This is one of those glass half empty, glass half full. Some people see this as a glass half empty..while I see it as a ton of free cash flow. pcstel, while I appreciate your comments (we must all stay objective!), but appears as though you have something against Qualcomm. Nevertheless, let me remind you that by 2005, WCDMA will probably be very popular in China. So Qualcomm isn't getting royalties on 50 million subs, but rather, 350 million.. That brings in more like 927.5 million at $100 per phone (btw, royalty rate is 2.65, not 2.5). And that's just one country, but yes I know..it's the biggest one. India will have like 75 million users. Japan and Korea will have like 110 million. The United States will have 160 million. Yawnnn? You can, but I think that's a pretty damn awesome business. Now whether Qualcomm recieves royalties on WCDMA, that's a different question..