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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rich Wolf who wrote (24919)	9/20/2001 11:20:26 PM
From: Larry Brubaker	Respond to of 27311

Rich, here is an interesting post which includes, among many other things, a different opinion than yours on short selling. Message 16378428 I completely agree with the author's perspective on short selling, (although I disagree with other points he makes).

To: Rich Wolf who wrote (24919)	9/23/2001 7:06:11 PM
From: P. Ramamoorthy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 27311

Rich, Nice to hear from you after a long time. I do have a question for you on the following: "Also, I do not discount the possibility that the Goodenough group could produce comparable cells using their phosphate patent, and not being interested in production, could try to do an end-run by licensing before Valence does. Again, we shall see. If the Goodenough patent can be used to make cells comparable to those based on the Valence patents, I would expect Sony to be their first licensee. That's where I would watch for early entry, or else from Hitachi." I do not see how VLNC and other manufacturers are prepared to deal with this scenario. In the last conf call, Stephan was very clear about VLNC not competing in the commodity market for li poly batteries because the profit margin is low. Probably Sony or Samsung is willing to invest the huge capital equipment needed for manufacturing these batteries at such a low profit margin. Samsung already announced their plans to dominate the market replacing Japanese manufacturers. In the case of VLNC we now know that it takes a lot of time for the reduction of their inventions to practice, technology transfer, and large scale commercial production (at NI). Commodity markets are not too kind to late comers. I do not see how Goodenough patent or VLNC phosphate patent will help licensees to compete in the commodity battery market. VLNC is claimed to be the lowest cost producer of laminates but we do not see how much additional revenue they are getting from the laminate sales. Not very clear where the competitive advantage lies and how they will cash in. Ram