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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Irene Lynn who wrote (40653)	9/21/2001 11:17:00 AM
From: SirRealist	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 50167

Irene; yes, Dent is where my projection comes from, in part. And despite the doom talk from the current nasty business, I know war usually does not hurt an economy except for briefly, at the beginning. I am most concerned with elderly folks who have been hurt bad and do not have the time to climb back from such big losses. That is the saddest. As far as the 12 year Depression a few years ahead, I just say put the nuts away for winter. There's over 5 years to prepare. Best of luck to you; Kevin

To: Irene Lynn who wrote (40653)	9/23/2001 9:08:58 PM
From: ChrisJP	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

hi Irene, a stock pal of mine on another bulletin board gave me a link to your post. 2006, 2007, 2008. I've seen all 3 years used. There are lots of articles on 60 year cycles (3 generations) that explain the mega-economic principles behind the economy from the Great Depression until now. My theory is 2006 is when the first Baby Boomers turn 60. If you think of the stock market as simply a place that money flows into (stocks go up) and money flows out of (stocks go down), then it's understandable that when Baby Boomers start turning 60, they need to re-adjust their portfolios to preserve capital and become more income generating. This outflow activity will dominate Gen-X and Gen-Y inflows and at best cause the markets to tread water -- for 10 to 12 years -- until Gen-X plus Gen-Y desire to save for retirement causes net inflow into the markets. Obvisously that's not the only factor influencing the markets, but don't underestimate it. Hope that helps, Chris