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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Timetobuy who wrote (81907)	9/21/2001 5:57:40 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Msft at 50 is priced for perfection. And that is if estimates aren't cut. I still think they'll miss those estimates, but now they have the WTC to blame it on. They most likely would have had to guide down anyway. They were too bullish on pc sales. I think you got that "bullish on PC sales" wrong. They were in fact bearish---go back and listen/watch their analyst day presentation a little while ago. Their revenues/eps estimates were based upon 5% lower sales than IDC was predicting. They just confirmed sales numbers a couple of weeks ago; in addition, there is a lag on when their revenue gets reported for pc sales. You just don't believe their conservative guidance; MSFT is a very conservative company. As for Windows XP launch, it is going to stimulate PC demand but maybe not as much as many analysts have previously thought. You usually bring up the X-Box often---remember they lose money on each unit sold and if sales are low due to the economy, it will be positive for their EPS in the near term. As for Nasdaq lower than 1300 and MSFT. Obviously, MSFT would have to go downward even if their earnings are intact. That has not stopped the selling in so many stocks that are expected to hit targets. MSFT would do incredible in a flat Nasdaq but won't hold up in a downward move. In a down market, margin selling and the need to raise cash by selling the most liquid names are important factors in the stock price movement. MSFT has hit my target buying price (49) but I have held back because the WTC tragedy and the pace of Nasdaq decline. Have only bought a small position. IMHO, tech (semis/pcs)is going to lead the recovery when it happens but I don't want to try to catch the falling knife....yet.