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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (34351)	9/21/2001 12:14:18 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 70169

[madtrader] Fri Sep 21, 7:40am PDT $DJI $NDX.X Just remarkable how fast things turn. DJI went from down 300 plus to up 50 in one hour. Needless to say the day isn't over and we might still get some retest later. none. [madtrader] Fri Sep 21, 7:30am PDT Fed Hearing rumor that Fed is about to do another "emergency" rate cut, much like on Oct 8th, 1998. The source of that rumor suggests that World Bank is selling commercial paper at 2.5%, those paper tend to trade in line with Fed fund target rate, which is 3%. So, go figure. I am adding more longs to my existing position. Let's not forget, bears do take profits on Fridays. long QQQ Oct 30 calls. Register for our newsletter [madtrader] Fri Sep 21, 7:11am PDT $DJI $NDX.X Was that the blow-off bottom? A waterfall slide followed by a big gap down? Looks like it to me. I am buying this gap down here for a trade. I have not seen VIX get above 55 since 1998 when I thought the whole system was about to crash thanks to LTCM. It could get higher of course, back in 1987 the VIX was near 100. long QQQ Oct 26 calls. [madtrader] Thu Sep 20, 3:46pm PDT $TYX.X $DJI Well, a couple of interesting things I have noticed when I was review charts. Couldn't help but notice that March 22 was the exact day of DJI's previous bottom, and TYX's as well. It made sense people rotated out of bonds that day and bought stocks. However, TYX's slide in yield lead the DJI's slide by exactly one week, May 15th as opposed to 22nd for DJI. TYX has spiked up this week ever since DJI resumed trading. Suggesting money is floating out of both stocks and bonds (my thesis the other day about dollar liquidation). A least in the past year, both TYX and DJI has had remarkable parallel. If indeed TYX is leading a bit, perhaps just by a week or so (bonds did trade for 2 days last week as well), we are within a couple of days of this elusive bottom. What is also interesting to me is the fact that all the technical comments I have seen in the last few days (ever since DJI broke 9100), people have been suggesting an "obvious" retest of 7400 (1998 low)is coming for DJI. Well, needless to say, I don't have a crystal ball, but if everyone is looking for 7400 range as the bottom, I can guarantee you institutional buyers won't wait for that magic number to appear before they step in and buy. Thus I don't think we will see 7400 in this cycle.