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Microcap & Penny Stocks : TGL WHAAAAAAAT! Alerts, thoughts, discussion. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Tom Allinder who wrote (92268)9/21/2001 2:58:08 PM
From: Buckey  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 150070
 
I agree and that attack was as much on us in Canada - IT was aan attack on our western culture by a small group of ragtag extremists who claim to be defending GOD and ISLAM.

They did more harm than good to their religion. and to anyone who might even look like them. TOo bad so sad again.

Markets suck



To: Tom Allinder who wrote (92268)9/21/2001 2:58:08 PM
From: Buckey  Respond to of 150070
 
I agree and that attack was as much on us in Canada - IT was aan attack on our western culture by a small group of ragtag extremists who claim to be defending GOD and ISLAM.

They did more harm than good to their religion. and to anyone who might even look like them. TOo bad so sad again.

Markets suck



To: Tom Allinder who wrote (92268)9/21/2001 11:07:16 PM
From: Tom Allinder  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 150070
 
Regarding a market bottom...

Not trying to sound like mr-know-it-all but, here are a few observations:

For the last 18 months or so, NASDAQ has been tanking. The Dow did not start to tank until a couple of weeks ago. When market bottoms occur, all markets will be involved. Markets are tied to the economy, both nationally and globally. And, in these days, the economy is tied to the markets.

The economy and markets have been pretty strong for 10 years now with a few minor corrections in between. There have been other significant corrections over the history of the markets. They have always been tied to economic conditions and global events. Significant recessions and corrections in the stock market have always ended and the economy/markets have always come back stronger than ever before.

What constitutes a significant market bottom?
In my opinion, the following items are key to a market bottom:

1. Many who have been long-term investors redeem their mutual funds out of fear that the markets are going to 0. This is one of the FEAR factors involved. Look at the figures from just this last week: over $10B in outflows from financial institutions. There is a VERY strong correlation between big mutual fund outflows and market bottoms. Why? Well, look at my wife's retirement program: She has lost 70% of her money off the March high in 2000. At some point, emotion takes over and people sell at any price. This is the PANIC, factor. We have a lot of fear and panic going on now because our markets have been tanking, uncertain of what the future will bring, no visibility of corporate profits. The uncertainty of the future with regard to the economy and the political situation have not been at this level in many, many years. There are some people out there that think the world is ending... There are many people who have lost 90%+ and have seen enough and they are getting out. There are many people who had a lot of money 18 months ago and have none now. Many of us are just trying to survive until things get better; I include myself in that group.

2. Bullish/Bearish Sentiment... its headed in the right direction but there are still a few too many bulls and not enough bears.

3. 30 year support... For those interested in looking at the history of the markets, look at the charts of the last 30 years. Our markets are approaching the lower end of the trendline. In other words, the opportunity that is coming only happens once every 30 years...

The bear market of 2000-2001 can be loosely compared with the 73-74 bear market. When I, along with many of you were making insane amounts of money EVERY DAY in late 99 into early 2000, I said enjoy this now, for it will not last. We had a big party. When we have a big party, the hangover will be severe. This hangover has been severe.

How will the end of this bear market be signified?

Well, we will get into the following ranges (MY OPINION):
NASDAQ 1000-1200 and the Dow 5800-7000.

And this can occur any day now. Big bear markets are ended as such, with a final, big volume day on all markets with the last of the hangers-on selling their positions. It will end with many people calling their brokers and telling them to "just get me out".

This seems ridiculous. But it is a known fact. 90%+ of all investors and traders in the market sell at the bottom. Why? Well, its because emotion takes over during such days. I have seen a couple of these and I was "scared" even though I was all cash... did not own anything.

Look for volume on NASDAQ to be 3+B on the last day of the bear market. Dow volume will be will over 2B.

Finally, I am in the same position that many of you are in: I am in the survival mode. I am daytrading enough NAZ stock to pay my greatly reduced expenses. At times, I don't know if it will be enough. I do believe this though:
I think the US government is doing all it can to turn things around. And I DO believe that the economy will turn around.

Why? Because it is obvious that a lot of money will be expended in the re-building process. A lot of money will be spent on defense. A lot of money will be spent on new technology. In other words, the money that will re-ignite this economy is already being spent.

This great country of ours will turn around soon with regard to the economy. It has happened every time before. From WW2 to the Gulf War, our country has "turned-two" to provide what the country has needed in war time. This will not be any different. The federal govt will and is spending billions on the effort to combat terrorism and to rebuild what has been destroyed. But more than anything, the government is investing in what will PREVENT what happened on 11 September 2001.

The horrible events of Sept 11 pushed the US and global economy over the edge into a recession. What the terrorists seeked to destroy has awakened. The American people are unified with our allies on this continent and abroad. A recovery is at hand if we have the patience to wait another few days or weeks.

Even if I am wrong on the timeframe, I do know this: This is a great country... even if I lose everything waiting, I will have another chance. That is what separates this country from our enemies. I got started in the market with $700 and grew it into 6 figures in less than 2 years. I can do it again anytime. This is America. Anything is GREAT possible.

GOD BLESS AMERICA AND OUR FRIENDS...

Tom