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To: Caxton Rhodes who wrote (105346)	9/21/2001 8:28:05 PM
From: waverider	Respond to of 152472

Where’s the housing market headed? Different directions in different places The housing market is already feeling the effects of last week's disaster, after months of propping up the economy. But, the changes aren't where you'd expect. By June Fletcher THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Sept. 21 — Couple of weeks ago, Ross Williams figured he could easily get $650,000 for his renovated home in San Francisco. Now he’s so skittish about the market that he’s auctioning it off this weekend with a starting bid of $395,000 — and thinks he’ll be lucky to get into the high $500,000 range. “Am I worried?” asks Mr. Williams, a chiropractor. “Absolutely.” BEFORE LAST WEEK, real estate was one of the brightest spots in the fading economy. Now, from Orlando to San Francisco, there are already signs that the terrorist disasters have had a broad — and remarkably varied — impact on housing prices. On the whole, the news isn’t pretty: Analysts are downgrading their earlier forecasts of around 6% overall price appreciation for the year. And in interviews, real-estate brokers as well as potential buyers and sellers are largely pessimistic. Economic forecasting firm Case Shiller Weiss, for example, recalculated its projections for next year in the wake of the attacks, lowering them for 18 out of 20 cities that it tracks. CSW, which provides regular housing forecasts to The Wall Street Journal, now expects prices to rise just 2.4% nationally, about three percentage points below its earlier forecast. But the changes aren’t necessarily where you’d expect. Despite being 3,000 miles from the terrorist attacks, San Diego and San Francisco may see sharp declines. And surprisingly, Washington, D.C., is one of the few places where housing prices are actually expected to do better now. Just last Friday, real-estate agent Shirley O’Neal listed a $160,000 condo there and sold it at full price the next day. Its location: less than a mile from the then-smoldering Pentagon. “Washington usually does well in a war,” says Ms. O’Neal. While economists differ over how long the market may drag, the short-term fallout has been pronounced in much of the country. In the six days following the Sept. 11 attacks, the number of people looking for a broker dropped by more than half, compared with the week earlier, according to Website HomeGain.com. Brokers this week also reported some panic selling of homes near cities and an increase in people looking for a place in the countryside. Open houses were sparse, with 40% fewer than usual in Boston last weekend and the schedule remaining light in the coming days. New York, meanwhile, is predictably expected to see some of the sharpest declines. Prices had previously been projected to grow an additional 7.3% this year. Now, they’re likely to fall slightly. The attack was enough to scare off a Cambridge, Mass., couple who were looking at a Gramercy Park townhouse when the planes hit. “They got in their cars and drove away,” says their real-estate agent, Lanse Robb. In the wake of recent events, many economists have revised their expectations for the housing market. We asked economists Case Shiller Weiss to look at how home prices in 20 major markets are projected to do in the next 12 months, based on recorded sales, employment prospects and the number of people setting up households. Here, their predictions compared to the firm's previous forecast.